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By Sastry Putcha, Vamshi Vemula, Aneesh Goly, Kumar Allady

Current dynamic testing practice to obtain pile total capacity will not yield optimum capacity due to the strain incompatibility between the side and tip resistances during driving. Superposition of end of initial drive- static tip capacity and the peak static skin capacity during beginning of restrike and adding them is the preferred method. The FDOT method determines independent pile static tip and skin capacities in real time analyzing appropriate blows from the embedded tip and top data of the Embedded Data Collectors (EDC). This data is collected through a wireless radio transmitter, receiver, and laptop software. The approach utilizes EDC tip and top data and nonlinear single degree of freedom system to satisfy force and energy equilibrium with a global genetic inversion analysis. Top impacted energy equals at pile tip as sum of Static, Damping and Inertial energy providing independent tip resistance. With EDC sensors as boundary conditions, pile is divided into desired segments and using global inversion techniques one dimensional equation is solved for independent skin friction for every blow. EDC data compared close static load test results. The EDC - FDOT method has enabled cost effective 100% testing of driven piles cost effective. INTRODUCTION Historical documentation has shown that not only driven piles have a long history of usage but also continues to advance unceasingly till today. Historians placed the first pile driving using timber piles in the 4th century BC. While modern pile driving systematically started around nineteenth century, the credit for conceiving the idea of the applicability of wave equation to driven piles goes to David Victor Isaccs of Australia. His 1931publication “Concrete Pile Driving Formulae” provides the basis for modern pile driving using stress wave theory. He felt that the dynamic formulae then in use lacked the capability of detecting integrity and hence developed stress wave theory. This work was further developed starting in 1938 by W.H. Glanville and colleagues of British Building Research Board as they developed the first solution to the wave equation. But these early efforts have really taken off only with the advent of computers. E.A.L. Smith (1960) published ‘Pile Driving Analysis with the Wave Equation’ and provided first numerical solution to the wave equation. Within few years, the FHWA funded research and in due course this effort ushered the era of externally instrumented pile driving.

Jan 1, 2018

By J. Lee, M. Peart, T. Bhambhani, D. R. Nagaraj, P. Riccio

"Over the past decade or so, our efforts have focused on developing the rationale and concepts for new technology in reagent development and optimization in the processing of base and precious metals. A major outcome of these efforts have been the development of a novel family of collectors, principally driven by the MAXGOLD® and Aero XD-5002® chemistries, for precious metals recovery from primary Au ores and Cu-Au ores. These chemistries was developed to be robust to address the complex mineralogy and gold deportment in these ores. Plant trial data for a variety of ores have confirmed that the both Aero® XD-5002 and MAXGOLD® chemistry are indeed versatile in recovering gold values occurring as gold alloys and/or associated with many types of sulfides, and in altering the deportment of certain sulfides (such as those bearing As, Bi etc). An overview will be given in this paper using plant data to highlight the application of these reagents.INTRODUCTIONThe subject matter of this paper is the flotation of Au containing minerals from their ores. The motivation from this manuscript comes from the several challenges faced with the processing of Au ores, as was articulated in detail by Nagaraj (2008). The biggest challenge is the complex mineralogy; most easy-to-treat free-milling ores bodies are largely depleted. The Au values are distributed in multiple host minerals such as pyrite, pyrrhotite, arsenopyrite and Cu minerals such as chalcopyrite. Au values also happen to be finely disseminated within the various minerals and are sometimes invisible in optical microscopy. Additionally, on any given day, some mines treat multiple ore types, and the mineralogy is different for each ore type.Xanthates continue to be the collectors of choice at most Au and PGM operations around the world. Most primary Au operations tend to consume very large amounts of collectors; the dosage ranges anywhere between 40-400 g/t and this has been attributed to both mineralogical and non-mineralogical factors (non-mineralogical factors include the low cost of xanthates and the mindset that “more is always better”, which is not necessarily the case). In addition, several studies now show that xanthates alone are never sufficient where multiple value minerals are present, and that supplementary collectors are required. The large doses present a substantial cost to the minerals industry, and many mining companies have expressed the need for more efficient reagents that can improve metallurgical performance at low dosages."

Jan 1, 2013

By G. Broadbent

It is an honour to be invited as a speaker to this ICCR conference and a pleasure to be with you here in South Africa. I have been asked to talk about the competitiveness of coal versus other energy alternatives. Coal supplies nearly one-quarter of the global primary energy. Its most direct competitors are gas, nuclear and renewables. Oil is predominantly for transport fuels. Fuel oil is competitive with coal when crude is below its long-run average price and has some niche opportunities. But I will confine my comments to nuclear, renewables and particularly natural gas as the most potent current competitive threat to coal. Competitiveness is more than just cost and price; there is environmental acceptability, security or reliability and increasingly image. These factors are more of a spectrum than discrete issues. Dollars and cents remain the key issue for competitiveness but one must recognize the impact of politics in sustainable development and energy security.

Jan 1, 2001

By E. Ringdalen

Keywords: Pyrometallurgy, research, Norway, SINTEF, NTNU The Norwegian Ferro-alloy Industry and the model for research cooperation between SINTEF, NTNU, and the Norwegian ferro-alloy industry is presented as an introduction. The research within pyrometallurgy is illustrated by examples from characterisation of Mn-ores and characterisation of carbon materials. Examples from studies of reaction mechanisms in laboratory- and pilot-scale experiments are presented, in addition to an example of industrial off-gas measurements. Education possibilities at NTNU are also described.

Jan 1, 2011

This paper is in two parts. The first part provides background to coal in New Zealand, information on Solid Energy the Company and details of the resources, mines and products of the company. This part of the paper is intended for people who have limited knowledge of the New Zealand coal scene. The second part of the paper focuses on developments underway in New Zealand and discusses planned or possible changes and opportunities. This paper was first presented at the Coaltrans Asia Conference in June 2000.

Jan 1, 2000

By William F. Anderson

A series of pile load tests (maintained load tests, constant rate of penetration tests at different rates, and statnamic tests) was carried out on an instrumented model pile installed in clay beds prepared by consolidation of a slurry in a calibration chamber. The total load, shaft resistance and end bearing during the pile load tests were investigated. Following this, alternative methods of deriving the static load-settlement curve from a Statnamic test in clay taking into account damping effects have been proposed. These methods have then been used to interpret a statnamic test on a full size instrumented pile installed in a stiff glacial till.

Jan 1, 2006

By Dhar B. B, Gupta R. C

Grinding of iron ore is an essential step to utilise ore fines for pelletisation needed for DRI units. While preparing iron ore pellets for DRI production, the iron ore needs extensive grinding which is highly energy consuming step causing the process to become non-viable in some cases. In the present paper an attempt has been made to evaluate grinding performance of thermally treated ore compared to normal ore grinding. Such thermal pre-treatment has been found to reduce the energy requirement with lower consumption rate of grinding media. It has been observed that by applying thermal shock the ore is rendered weak with improved grindability. The stresses generated due to thermal treatment may extend existing micro-cracks in the ore and in some cases it may even nucleate fresh cracks. Experimental studies carried out on thermally treated hematitite ore reveals that the heating to 400¦C followed by water quenching can cause a reduction of 45 per cent in grinding energy. The paper gives the details of the experiment and the Results.

Jan 1, 1999

By X. Bai

A new heuristic sublevel mining stope optimizer is presented. The optimizer seeks the best locations and lengths of a series of vertical raises that, together with the blocks linked to each raise, define a mining stope. Five design constraints ? the footwall angle, the hangingwall angle, the number of raises, the maximum distance of a block from a raise, and the minimum width required to move the farthest block towards the raise ? allow the shape of the sub-stopes associated with each raise to be controlled. The optimization is done on the locations and lengths of raises using a genetic algorithm to efficiently sample the parameters? space. For each raise, a local network is defined in cylindrical coordinates around the raise such as to impose the design constraints. A maxflow algorithm on the local network is used to determine the optimal sub-stope for each raise. All substopes are combined to define the global stope for the entire deposit. The best global stope is obtained using a genetic algorithm to find the raise parameters providing the best profit over the entire deposit. Two synthetic cases and one real deposit are used to evaluate the new algorithm and compare the results with the single-raise optimizer. The multiple raises approach leads to significantly improved economics compared with the single-raise stope optimizer, and the dilution is also substantially reduced compared to the single-raise case.

Jan 1, 2014

By P. J. Sylvester, D. H. C. Wilton, R. I. Wheeler, M. A. E. Huminicki, D. Evans-Lamswood

"Systematic characterization of the mineralogy of massive sulfide ore deposits can provide valuable insights into ore genesis and metallurgical processing that would not be apparent otherwise. We describe a method wherein (1) normative mineral abundances are calculated from whole-rock chemical assays using an algorithm, (2) the results are cast in block models, (3) the results are then verified with automated image analysis of a subset of samples prepared as grain mounts by backscattered electron imaging and X-ray mapping on a scanning electron microscope, and (4) those verified results are integrated with textural data determined by optical microscopy.The technique is applied to the magmatic Ni-Cu-Co sulfides of the Ovoid orebody, based on geochemical assays of 3175 whole-rock samples. Three principal ore zones are defined in the Ovoid. Type I ore occurs in the center of the deposit; it is magnetite-rich and pyrrhotite-poor with intermediate contents of pentlandite and chalcopyrite. Type II ore surrounds Type I ore and is pentlanditechalcopyrite- rich with intermediate contents of pyrrhotite and magnetite. Type III ore occurs at the base and along the outer periphery of the northern part of the orebody; it is pyrrhotite-rich and chalcopyrite- poor with an intermediate content of pentlandite, and a low-to-intermediate content of magnetite. La caractérisation systématique de la minéralogie des gîtes de sulfures massifs peut fournir des indications précieuses sur la genèse des minerais et le traitement métallurgique qui ne seraient pas disponibles par d’autres méthodes. Nous décrivons un procédé par lequel (1) un algorithme est utilisé pour calculer l’abondance de minéraux normatifs à partir d’analyses lithogéochimiques, (2) les résultats sont exprimés dans des blocs diagrammes, (3) les résultats sont par la suite validés par analyse d’image automatisée sur un microscope électronique à balayage en électrons rétrodiffusés et par cartographie en rayons X sur des échantillons constitués de grains montés en résine, et (4) les résultats de cette validation sont combinés aux données texturales obtenues par microscopie optique.Cette technique est appliquée aux sulfures magmatiques de Ni-Cu-Co du gisement Ovoïde, en utilisant les analyses géochimiques de 3175 échantillons de roche totale. L’Ovoïde comprend trois types de minerai. Le type I est situé au centre du gisement; il est riche en magnétite et pauvre en pyrrhotite avec des quantités intermédiaires de pentlandite et de chalcopyrite. Le minerai de type II entoure le minerai de type I et est riche en pentlandite et en chalcopyrite avec des quantités intermédiaires de pyrrhotite et de magnétite. Le minerai de type III se trouve à la base ainsi qu’à bordure externe de la partie nord du gisement; il est riche en pyrrhotite et pauvre en chalcopyrite, avec un contenu intermédiaire en pentlandite et une quantité faible à moyenne de magnétite."

Jan 1, 2012

By M. G. Wimberger

The Merensky Reef zone, as developed on Impala Platinum?s Rustenburg Operations, displays a gradational mineralized zone, with grades decreasing from the Merensky Pegmatoid Unit into the footwall and hanging wall. A system of identifying a manageable method of defining the mining cut is introduced, termed the grade profile attenuation cut-off grade. Although horizontal grade selectivity is not applied in the mining of the Merensky Reef zone, low extraction of the orebody, due to manageable and non-manageable factors, can contribute to a reduction in revenue, even losses, due to fixed cost contributions in the mining and beneficiation of the ore. A model is proposed that integrates all variables affecting the revenue of the mining operation, including the grade profile attenuation cut-off grade, the extraction factors, commodity prices and exchange rates, utilizing numerical simulation techniques in a PC-based environment. A breakeven extraction factor for a specific cut-off grade is delivered for a range of market conditions. The breakeven extraction factor is a useful guide when designing mining layouts in structurally complex and low metal content areas. Incorporating distribution functions for individual commodity prices and exchange rates into the model provides mineral resource managers with a risk profile for individual mining areas. Shaft areas have varying grade profiles and each area should have individual models run, to prevent generalizations being made about acceptable risk levels on mining areas.

Jan 1, 2004

By J. M. Galera, M. D. Rodriguez, V. Pozo, S. Cooper

"Cobre Las Cruces mine extracts copper minerals from a VMS deposit located in the well-known Iberian Pyrite Belt (IPB). As an open pit, it is distinguished geologically from other IPB mines by the presence of around 150 m of Tertiary soft marls, known locally as the Guadalquivir Blue Marls, followed by a regionally important aquifer. Below the marls and aquifer the mineralization is hosted by rocks typical of the Palaeozoic within the IPB, comprising gossan, tuffs, slates, and sulphides.This combination of a substantially soft rock and more competent, older (but still occasionally problematic) Palaeozoic lithologies constitutes a unique geological framework and presents substantial challenges in maintenance of slope stability, and therefore operational safety, at the mine site. This paper describes the fundamental design, excavation, and monitoring measures implemented at the mine to maintain safe production, and the lessons learnt during the mine development. IntroductionAs a modern Spanish mine, Las Cruces is committed to the use of best available technology and practices with the aim of guaranteeing the production of ore in a safe environment. From a practical perspective, this implies the realization of a high quality pit design, ongoing geotechnical mapping of exposed slopes to ensure conformity with design, and use of leading geotechnical surveillance technology to complement visual observations. The focus of this article is to illustrate how, at a mine site with potentially problematic soil/rock conditions, multiple advanced techniques employed from design stage analysis through to final pit configuration and vigilance, were combined to achieve an overall control of the ground conditions. In Figure 1 the layout of the pit is shown, illustrating development at the beginning of 2015."

Jul 1, 2019

The problem of ventilating an advancing drive which finally reached 5,550 ft from the fresh air base in rock with virgin temperature of 83°F was solved economically by the use of two 15 h.p. electric fans forcing ventilating air through 281/2 in. dia. fiexible polythene tubing of wall thickness 0·010 in. The saving in cost over conventional metal duct was estimated to be £3· 24 per ft of drive.INTRODUCTIONAs described by Dutton (1965) and Newton (1965) the existing 1,480' ft level drive at the South Mine, Broken Hill, was extended in two stages. The first extension was 3,790 ft, the face then being 4,790 ft from the fresh air inlet. Later, after a vertical ventilation connection was made 1,000 ft back from the face, the drive was extended a further 4,550 ft. The rate of face advance in both stages was about 15 ft per day (3 shifts of 5 ft), 5 days per week. Drive size was 8 ft by 9 ft 6 in. high.The Mines Inspection Act of New South Wales requires 6 hr shifts (instead of the normal 7 in Broken Hill) to be worked if the wet bulb temperature exceeds 80°F. Virgin rock temperature on the 1,480 ft level was 83°F. Inlet air temperature varied with seasons from 58 to 72,oF wet bulb.To adequately ventilate the face, a flow of air of about 11,000 c.f.m. was thought to be necessary.Re-entry time was about 75 min, being governed by the 7 hr length of shift (3 shifts per day) and travelling time.Blasting was permitted only at the end of the shift, in accordance with local industrial restrictions.

Jan 1, 1965

By W. J. Boone

The Bureau of Mines has programmed for publication a series of Reports of Investigations of studies it has undertaken on low-temperature phase equilibria of several helium-bearing natural gases. This report is the second of a series of papers of the same general title; it is anticipated that additional reports of this series will be published. The advent of a helium conservation program and the prospect of production of helium by private industry, make it especially desirable to publish these data. This report describes phase equilibria related to a natural gas that is processed for helium at the Bureau's Exell Helium Plant (located about 35 miles north of Amarillo, Tex.). Carbon dioxide and water in the gas were removed before making the study; hence the data obtained are representative of the gas stream immediately after similar preliminary treatment in the plant process. Phase equilibrium data were obtained for conditions from -50° to -275° F. and from 100 to 500 p.s.i.a. Analyses of samples were made as follows: For a given run at a selected temperature and pressure, samples of the vapor and liquid phases were analyzed by mass spectrometer, and an additional sample of the liquid phase was analyzed for helium by means of special apparatus (7). 4

Jan 1, 1962

By G. Richards

Research shows that having more women in the top mining jobs can bring bottom-line benefits. Mining companies are starting to embrace the need for greater gender diversity at board and senior management levels, figures and examples are given.

Jul 1, 2015

By W. H. Bassett, C. H. Davis

In the commercial annealing of cartridge brass there are four points regarding which definite data are essential. They have to do with the correct interpretation of grain count in its relation to annealing temperature and, incidentally, to Brinell hardness. These points are: 1. The comparison of the grain sizes of two cartridge-brass mixtures: 69 copper, 31 zinc, 0.376-in. (9.5-mm.) gage; and 68 copper, 32 zinc, 0.130-in. (3.3-mm.) gage 2. The comparison of the grain sizes of annealed metal that had previously been reduced by rolling varying amounts; for instance, 20.0, 36.6, 50.9, and 59.1 per cent. 3. The determination of standards for grain sizes on annealed brass of the composition 68 per cent. copper, 32 per cent. zinc and 69 copper, 31 zinc. 4. The comparison of grain size with Brinell hardness on identical samples of annealed metal. In their comprehensive and thorough investigation of the recrystal-lization of cold-worked alpha brass on annealing,l Mathewson and Phillips have discussed the relations between temperature of anneal, degree of deformation, and structural alteration in alpha brass. They have also shown certain comparisons between the ordinary physical properties and the grain size of annealed brass. The purpose of the present investigation is mainly concerned with the grain size of cartridge brass, its relation to Brinell hardness, and the publication of sufficient data to enable those engaged in the inspection of such material to have a correct foundation upon which to work. The first alloy was taken from regular mill stock that had been rolled from 0.580 in. to 0.376 in. (14.7 mm. to 9.5 mm.) gage, a reduction of 35.1 per cent. This bar (No. 1) had the following composition: Copper, 69.20 per cent.; zinc, 30.76 per cent.; lead, 0.02 per cent.; iron, 0.02 per cent. The second alloy was also taken from mill stock of 0.325 in. (8.25 mm.) gage and was rolled as shown in Table 1, in order to get four bars reduced two, four, six, and eight B. & 5. numbers respectively. This second alloy

Jan 1, 1919

By Marlion T. McQuinn

This paper will discuss the design, construction, and performance of the support of excavation on the Dulles East and West Automated People Mover Tunnels and Station projects. The elements of the system included drilled soil nails and rock anchors with reinforced shotcrete to the excavated face. We will discuss the geotechnical characteristics, design and construction considerations, loading criteria, construction techniques, schedule constraints, and performance of the support of excavation system. In consideration of the conference theme, there will be a discussion of the application of the real-time instrumentation monitoring program. The project team worked to design and install approximately 710,000 square feet of shotcrete and 19,000 soil nails/rock anchors as well as excavate over 720,000 cubic yards of rock materials within 15 months and in such a manner as to minimize the disruption to airport passengers and operations.

Jan 1, 2006

By A. Tylczak, C. Shook, A. Doogan-Smith, S. Loif, B. Hilscher, P. Nayak

"This paper discusses how to effectively conduct energy efficiency studies during the design of new mineral processing plants and plant expansions. Energy management studies for new plants are ideally conducted as part of the feasibility study, but can also be done at the detailed design stage prior to the purchasing of equipment. Energy management engineers work as part of the mineral processing plant design team.Such studies usually result in energy savings of approximately 3-8% of the predicted plant’s energy consumption and energy demand. Potential cost savings can be significant. A variety of mineral processing systems – crushing/grinding, pumping, materials handling, fans/blowers, compressed air, and others – are assessed within this study.Energy Management Information System (EMIS) studies can also be performed for the new plant or plant expansion, as an independent study. EMIS can be incorporated into the electrical and controls design of the plant.Most Canadian Utility companies fund new plant design studies and provide financial incentives based on the predicted energy savings and incremental cost of the more energy-efficient design. A new plant energy efficiency study improves the potential for energy reduction because only the incremental equipment cost is included in the project return-on-investment calculation. After the design and construction phases, energy efficiency projects must justify the entire cost of the upgrade, which is significantly higher than the incremental cost alone.This paper outlines the major steps of a new plant/plant expansion energy efficiency study, the available utility company incentives, and the areas yielding the largest potential energy savings.IntroductionThis paper discusses energy efficiency studies and energy management systems with regards to mining operations. Energy management refers to the systems of monitoring, analyzing, and optimizing energy usage within a facility. It includes energy efficiency optimization of the initial plant design as well as the implementation of an Energy Management System (EnMS) and Energy Management Information System (EMIS) for optimizing energy usage over the lifetime of the facility. An EnMS is the organizational framework and procedures for managing energy use; an EMIS is the system of monitoring, reporting, and tracking process energy use against targets."

Jan 1, 2016

By John C. Edwards, Gene F. Friel, John J. Opferman, Robert A. Franks

A series of diesel fuel fire experiments were conducted in the Pittsburgh Research Center's Safety Research Coal Mine (SRCM) to determine products-of-combustion (POC) spread rates along a single entry under zero imposed airflow conditions. Six experiments with an average fire intensity of 330 kW and three experiments with an average fire intensity of 30 kW were conducted in a 1 80 m long entry which had an average 2 m height and 4 m width. POC spread rates were measured by the response time of diffusion type CO detectors, positioned at 30 m intervals, to CO concentrations 5 ppm above ambient. For the 330 kW fires, average POC spread rates of 0.22, 0.13, and 0.06 m/s were determined at 30.60, and 90 m distances from the fire. For the 30 kW fires these average spread rates were reduced to 0.08, 0.04, and 0.04 m/s. The measured maximum roof layer temperature 30 m from two of the 330 kW fire was 30 and 36"C, which is less than the 57°C alarm point of a typical mine thermal sensor. It was determined that smoke detectors can be more effective for mine fire detection than CO detectors. The experimentally determined POC spread rates can be used to provide guidance for specification of sensor spacing to improve early fire detection at zero or very low air flows.

By Davood Moradkhani, Maryam Rasouli

"The present study reports solvent extraction and separation of zinc from concentrated nickel sulfate solution. In our previous study, Zn and Cd in cold filter cake (CFC, 45-55% Zn, 11-16% Cd, and 2.5-4% Ni) were extracted by alkaline leaching followed by electrowinning processes respectively. The strip solution from electrowinning process, was a pregnant liquor solution (PLS) containing 16.8 g/l Ni and 4.2 g/l Zn. In this work, PLS is subjected to the solvent extraction process for separation of traces of Zn from high grade nickel. The zinc free raffinate containing 16.6 g/l Ni sulfate solution will flow to nickel electrowinning plant for cathode production. Di-(2-ethylhexyl) phosphoric acid (D2EHPA) is the organic phase used in this study. The effects of various parameters such as organic phase concentration (10- 40 % v/v), pH (1.5-3), and temperature (25 and 45°) are investigated. Zinc over nickel separation factor increases by increasing pH from1.5 to 3. The results show that 98.7% of Zn was loaded at25°C O/A ratio of 1, pH 3, and 10% vol. D2EHPA. A 10 M NaOH is used for pH control. However, replacement of pH controlling agent with ammonia solution (25%. v/v) results in interesting observations. Ammonia addition, reduces the solubility of Ni2+ cations in solution. Nickel starts to precipitate from raffinate in a crystalline bluish-green form. The obtained crystals are characterized by XRF and identified to be nickel-bearing analog of boussingaultite, a rare sulfate mineral of nickel with chemical formula of Ni (NH4)2(SO4)2.6H2O. The crystallization rate of crystals is studied. It is a slow precipitation process with 75% in 4 days.INTRODUCTION Annually, many hydrometallurgical processes such as electrowinning, solvent extraction and leaching are applied to waste filter cakes in Zanjan, Iran. These additional processes on filter cakes are critical from both environmental and economic points of view. CFC (cold filter cake) is a toxic but valuable filter cake (45-55% Zn, 11-16% Cd, 2.5-4% Ni, and 0.2-1.5% Cu) produced in many zinc production plants. Our research group at Research and Engineering Company for Non-ferrous Metals (ReCo.), developed a series of hydrometallurgical methods for extraction of zinc, cadmium and nickel from CFC (Moradkhani, & Rasouli 2012). The recovery of zinc and cadmium with alkaline leaching and electrowinning was successfully studied. The strip sulfate solution from cadmium electrowinning unit, contains high concentration of nickel with some traces of zinc impurity. This pregnant liquor solution (PLS) was analyzed and reported to contain 16.8 g/l Ni and 4.2 g/l Zn. In this work, PLS is subjected to the solvent extraction process to separate Zn from nickel (Fig. 1). The organic phase stripping solution containing 4.2 g/l zinc and 200 ppm nickel can be circulated and used in the acidic leaching step. This generates nickel solution with high purity suitable for nickel cathode production."

Jan 1, 2017

By Edward H. Jr. Boyle, Paul R. Thomas

Introduction It is estimated that nearly 40% of all the gold ever mined in free world countries has been produced by South African operations. There is concern that this immense productive capacity will soon decline. Such a decline could reduce world gold supply and lessen the ability of market economy countries (MEC) to exert the major influence upon the world gold market. This paper addresses three general issues concerning South African gold production: • How much gold remains to be recovered from the demonstrated resources of the 44 evaluated South African mines; • How long can production at current levels continue; and • What will be its cost. Table 1 provides production data on the world's 10 largest producers for the years 1971, 1981, and 1983. As shown, South African gold production declined significantly from 1971 through 1981. As of 1981, annual South African gold production had dropped by more than 311 t (10 million oz) in 10 years. Despite this, its mines still produced 656 t (21 million oz) that year, about half the world total. From 1981 through 1983, this trend was reversed. Annual South African gold production increased by more than 21.8 t (700,000 oz). The trend reversal was also evident in the US, Canada, and Australia. This illustrates the general, inverse relationship between gold price and gold production. In South Africa especially, as gold prices increased substantially during the 1970s, the average grade of ore mined (pay limit) was lowered as new, lower grade areas and materials were exploited. Gold production declined in volume. But gold revenues increased, and the lives of the operations were extended. The 1981-83 period was one of declining (US dollar-based, average annual) gold prices that resulted in increasing South African production as average ore grades were raised. South Africa currently accounts for 50% of world production (Fig. 1). Figure 2 illustrates South Africa's contribution to total MEC production in 1971 and 1983. Although South Africa's relative share of production has declined, it still represents the single most important source of new gold supply. In 1983, it supplied more than 65% of total MEC production. South Africa currently produces more than twice as much gold as the Soviet Union (ranked second in world production), and 11 times more gold than the US (ranked fourth in world production). Barring major discoveries, South African gold production is expected to peak in 1987 and begin to decline again throughout the 1990s. The rate of decline is ex-

Jan 11, 1984