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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOCAL .SECTION Executive Committee SEELEY W. MUDD, Chairman C. COLCOCK JONES, Vice-Chairman. FREDERICK J. H. MERRILL, Secretary-Treasurer, 631 Higgins Bldg., Los Angeles, Cal. RALPH ARNOLD A. B. CARPENTER The Southern California Section, held a dinner and meeting at. the Sierra; Madre Club, Los Angeles, on Friday evening, Sept. 28, 1915, at which 21 members and guests-were present. The Vice-Chairman, C. Colcock Jones; presided, in the absence of the Chairman. The amendment' to the By-Laws providing for the increase of the Executive Committee from five to seven members, having been formally presented at the annual meeting of June 18, 1915, and duly announced for consideration at this meeting, was voted on and unanimously adopted. Prof. Robert H. Richards of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; made a short address on the subject of ore concentration. The paper on the Geology and Ore Deposits of Mojave, County, Arizona, prepared by F. C. Shrader, was presented to the meeting by the Secretary and was discussed by Allen Burris and Dr. L. D. Godshall. F. J. H. MERRILL, Secretary.

Jan 11, 1915

By Evan Just

Attempting to analyze a 25-year forecast after less than a third of the time has elapsed may seem premature. The President's Materials Policy Com- mission's report necessarily painted with a broad brush and made no claim for pinpoint accuracy in its predictions. More importantly for present purposes, it made no attempt to predict the detailed courses of production and consumption during the period forecasted. Several statistical highs and lows may very well lie between now and 1957, so comparing recent figures with points taken from the report on a straight-line basis would be illogical. Moreover, the report assumed that the general trend of consumption-domestic and foreign-would be upward. Contrarily, domestic figures were lower in 1957 than in 1950. Therefore, to project curves from 1950 through 1957 leads to conclusions that are probably false. Many in the industry would feel more uncertain about forecasting 1975 domestic conditions now than they would have been in 1950, even though nearly a third of the 25 years has elapsed. In making comparisons, several statistical problems are encountered. The Paley report figures for 1950 were estimated in several cases and corrected figures vary as much as 10 pct. For example, the report placed 1950 lead consumption at 800,000 tons, whereas actual consumption was 885,000 tons. Obviously, in comparing more recent figures with the report's projections, adjustments must be made for positions taken in error from the start. Over the long pull, such discrepancies will probably be insignificant, but they must be noted in comparing short-term changes.

Jan 10, 1959

By V. Jares

DESPITE the fact that a combination of metals-aluminum-zinc-tin, and sometimes aluminum-zinc-cadmium-is extensively used for aluminum solders, as well as for die-castings, the constitution of these alloys has not yet been made clear. I. BINARY SYSTEMS The system aluminum-zinc is the basis of the ternary alloys under consideration. Their composition was made sufficiently clear by the investigations of Rosenhain and Archbutt,1 Bauer and Vogel,2 Sander and Meissner,3 Hanson and Gayler4 and Isihara.5 Only the temperature of decomposition of the crystals 0 seems still to be doubtful, whether it is considered as a compound of Al2Zn3 (according to Bauer and Vogel) or as an intermediate phase of variant composition (according to Hanson and Gayler). This temperature is given by most of the authors as in the neighborhood of 256° C., only Isihara giving 280° C. As its accurate determination is of special importance in the study of the ternary alloys under consideration it was experimentally controlled in the following manner: An alloy corresponding in composition to the formula Al2Zn3 was made, in which the temperature effect was found to be the greatest. This was drilled and a silver-constantan thermoelement inserted into the cavity so as to be in direct contact with the alloy. The whole was then very slowly heated and the heating and cooling curves determined. The transition temperature from the heating curve was found to be 281° C., whereas from the cooling curve it was 252° C.

Jan 1, 1927

By Guy W. Jordan, David P. Hale

High-iRon cements have a number of advantages over cements carrying little or no iron. The presence of iron in Portland cement aids in the manufacture of the cement and also imparts certain advantageous physical properties to the finished product. In manufacture, the presence of iron lowers the fuel consumption, increases the ease of proper"burning, and lessens the destructive action of the charge on the kiln refractories. In the finished cement the presence of iron reduces the expansion and contraction, adds strength, adds increased resistance to"freezing and thawing, and increases the resistance of the cement to sea "or sulphate waters. [" During the past few years the construction of numerous dams through- "out the Southeast by the Tennessee Valley Authority has stimulated the "production of high-iron cements. At present a great number of specifica- "tions call for an iron cement, and the industry is supplying this demand "with a Portland cement carrying approximately 5 per cent iron oxide. "Several manufacturers are now making practically all of their cement "of this type and a number of others manufacture it as a special cement "over short periods to meet demands from the Tennessee Valley Authority "and other buyers. " The recent increase in the use of iron in Portland cement has created "a market for iron products that previously was nonexistent. The chief "sources of supply for the cement manufacturers at present are iron sand, "iron sinter and slag, and ocher. The Copperhill mining district, Ten- "nessee, supplies both iron sinter and slag for use in cement. The Carters- "ville district supplies iron sand, ocher, and some iron resulting from the "magnetic separation of iron from barite. The advantages of these "products vary according to the chemical properties of the raw materials "and the methods of handling used by the different manufacturers. Where "the iron is to be handled by conveying belts and in hopper cars, the iron"sand and sinter and slag are preferable. Where the silica content must "be raised, the iron sand is doubly advantageous because it supplies both

Jan 1, 1942

By David P. Hale, Guy W. Jordan

High-iRon cements have a number of advantages over cements carrying little or no iron. The presence of iron in Portland cement aids in the manufacture of the cement and also imparts certain advantageous physical properties to the finished product. In manufacture, the presence of iron lowers the fuel consumption, increases the ease of proper"burning, and lessens the destructive action of the charge on the kiln refractories. In the finished cement the presence of iron reduces the expansion and contraction, adds strength, adds increased resistance to"freezing and thawing, and increases the resistance of the cement to sea "or sulphate waters. [" During the past few years the construction of numerous dams through- "out the Southeast by the Tennessee Valley Authority has stimulated the "production of high-iron cements. At present a great number of specifica- "tions call for an iron cement, and the industry is supplying this demand "with a Portland cement carrying approximately 5 per cent iron oxide. "Several manufacturers are now making practically all of their cement "of this type and a number of others manufacture it as a special cement "over short periods to meet demands from the Tennessee Valley Authority "and other buyers. " The recent increase in the use of iron in Portland cement has created "a market for iron products that previously was nonexistent. The chief "sources of supply for the cement manufacturers at present are iron sand, "iron sinter and slag, and ocher. The Copperhill mining district, Ten- "nessee, supplies both iron sinter and slag for use in cement. The Carters- "ville district supplies iron sand, ocher, and some iron resulting from the "magnetic separation of iron from barite. The advantages of these "products vary according to the chemical properties of the raw materials "and the methods of handling used by the different manufacturers. Where "the iron is to be handled by conveying belts and in hopper cars, the iron"sand and sinter and slag are preferable. Where the silica content must "be raised, the iron sand is doubly advantageous because it supplies both

Jan 1, 1942

By Albert F. J. Bordeaux

The immediate vicinity of the sea-shore, affording special facility for the exportation of ores, makes it possible to work certain mines in the Vladivostok district, which, in more remote places of Siberia., would remain unproductive. Outside of the city of Vladivostok the population is small and the country is very little prospected. Additional discoveries of valuable deposits like the large body of calamine which has recently been opened in the neighborhood of earlier worked lead-silver ores, in the Tetiuhe valley, are still in the field of possibilities. For many years gold alone was produced, in part from the coastal rivers and in part from a quartz-vein on Askold island near Vladivostok. But the production is diminishing, and prospectors are looking for other rivers in the interior, such as the tributaries of the Ussuri. These rivers are now more accessible than formerly, due to the slow but gradual development of colonization by the Russian peasants. The few natives of the country, called Orodjones, are of the Chinese race. They resemble the North American Indian and are hardy fur-hunters. They have given some attention to placers and have already shown good specimens of gold-dust from the rivers Iman, Bikin, Noto, etc. Coal-mining was begun in the Vladivostok region more than 20 years ago, but in a somewhat irregular way. The industry is not as yet important and the best coal-seams are badly prospected, or are even neglected. Copper, lead, and iron exist in several places. The amounts give some encouragement to the anticipation that the discoveries will give rise to important metallurgical works. I here present a review of the various deposits, based upon such safe information as is in hand, when I have not drawn upon my personal observations. Fig. 1 is a map of Eastern Siberia, showing the mineral deposits.

Jan 1, 1913

By B. Bernstrom

A 22-ft diam, 7-ft long, wet autogenous grinding mill was installed in the new Cretaceous plant of the Jones & Laughlin Steel Corp. to prepare crude iron ore for concentration in spirals and flotation cells. The paper describes the flowsheet and gives a description of the operating and metallurgical results that have been obtained. These results include capacity, horsepower, operating problems and a comparison of pilot plant results with those obtained in commercial operation. The Cretaceous plant at the Hill Annex mine of the Jones & Laughlin Steel Corp. was designed with a wet autogenous mill for grinding low grade iron ore so that it could be concentrated by spirals and flotation cells. The plant, on the west end of the Minnesota's Mesabi Range, went into operation in June 1961, and preliminary operating and metallurgical information describing the performance of this mill can now be given. The crude is lean ore from the Cretaceous iron foundation. This formation is a beach deposit of Cretaceous age that overlies the Precambrian direct shipping and concentrating ores. This rock in nature is not extremely hard but is quite resilient, resisting blasting in mining and size reduction in milling. It contains hematite as water-rounded particles and other fragments of the underlying iron formation and adjacent rocks cemented together by a high alumina-silica ferruginous matrix. It is interspersed with hard dense hematite agglomerates and also contains granite pebbles and boulders that were not cleaned off during removal of the surface. It has a 3.48 sp gr and in the stockpile the material consists of frag-

Jan 1, 1962

Jan 1, 1925

By I. Fatt

The chromalographic effect refers to the separation of constituents in a moving fluid phase which occurs when the phase is passed over a stationary phase, either solid or liquid, or large areal extent. In performing chemical analyses, the large surface contact areal is provided in the case of gas-solid chromatography by-passing the gas over a porous solid and for gas-liquid chronla tog rap hy by-passing the gas over a porous solid which has been coated with a nonvolatile liquid. The porous medium is usually placed in a cylindrical tube, although it may be a relatively flat sheet as in paper chroma-tography. According to one theory,' the separation results from the difference in time spent by various components in the stationary phahe. A gaseous component which is conlpletely insoluble in the stationary phase, or is not adsorbed on the solid, proceeds unimpeded through the column. The versatility and power of the various types of chromatogruphy for the analysis of complex mixtures are evident from their widespread use in performing chemical analyses and from the large number of symposia, books, and papers devoted to the subject in recent years. Associated developments are the application of chromatography to the determination of heats of solution, heats of adsorption, solubilities orK-values, etc. Gas-liquicl chromatography analyses may be characterized by the manner in which the samples are introduced and displaced from the column'. The three techniques used are known as (1) frontal analysis, (3) displacement analysis, and (3) elution analysis. The frontal analysis is performed by displacing an inert gas from the column by a continuous stream of the sample. As indicated in Fig. l(A), all but the first fraction leaving the column represent mixtures rather than pure components. The displacement analysis is conducted by filling the column with a sample, then displacing it with a more strongly adsorbed or absorbed vapor. The resulting chro-matogram is illustrated by Fig. 1(B). Finally, in the elution analysis a small sample of the mixture to be analyzed is introduced as a "plug" into a Rowing stream of carrier gas to give an elution-type chromato-gram. Fig. l(C). The three techniques may be used to provide models to which Row patterns in other physical situations may be compared. PURPOSE OF THE INVESTIGATION The purpose of this investigation was to determine whether natural reservoir rocks, when coated with crude oil, provided sufficient surface areas to give rise to a chromato-graphic separation of light hydrocarbon constituents. The tests were conducted with the light hydrocar-bons in the gaseous state. SANDS TESTED Two sands of widely different permeabilities have been studied: (1) Ventura core (16 md), and (2) Torpedo sandstone core (578 md).Table 1 gives a description of the cores that were tested. With the exception of one frontal-type flow arrangement which was performed on Core 3, the tests were of theelution-type in which a methane-propane mixture was eluted through the core by means of helium. The Ventura core, when impregnated with a weathered crude from the same field, became so impermeable to gas flow that it was necessary to conduct the tests on the granulated cores (Cores 2 and 3).

By S. S. Shen, M. J. Pool, P. J. Spencer, J. R. Guadagno

VERY few thermodynamic data are available for rare-earth alloys, partly because of the difficulties of obtaining the metals in sufficiently pure form and also because of their comparative scarcity up to the present time. The rare earths form a very interesting series in the periodic table in view of the progressive filling of their 4f subvalence electron shell and would be expected to provide useful information with regard to alloying characteristics of transition elements. It has been found in recent calorimetric investigations that the heats of solution of a number of the rare-earth metals in liquid tin are highly exothermic.1-4 Exceptionally strong bonding between rare-earth and tin atoms is clearly indicated in the liquid solutions. Continued thermodynamic studies of the behavior of rare earths in solution could thus contribute a great deal to present theoretical knowledge of alloying behavior and would yield an insight into bonding of a strength hitherto unencountered in liquid alloys. The determination of the heats of solution of the pure components in liquid tin is an essential preliminary to calorimetric work of this nature. Heats of solution of praseodymium, neodymium, and samarium in liquid tin at 750" ' and the heats of mixing of Pr-Nd solid solutions' have already been determined in this laboratory. The present investigations with lanthanum continue the study of rare-earth elements. Details of the construction and operation of the liquid metal solution calorimeter used in this work have been published previously by Pool and Peluso and no further description will be given here. The lanthanum used in heat of solution determinations was supplied by Lunex who quoted the purity as 99.9 pct. Their detailed analysis of the material is given in Table I. Samples of 0.0003 to 0.0005 g-atom were used for each run and great care was taken to remove all surface oxide prior to weighing. The samples were stored at all other times in a beaker of oil to prevent their otherwise rapid oxidation. The compounds LaSn (Cudu, L1P type structure) and La&, (structure not classified) were prepared from the appropriate quantities of the two pure components by arc melting under a purified argon atmosphere and once again great precautions were taken to avoid any subsequent oxidation of the specimens. Although no structural examination of the compounds was made, the consistency of thermodynarnic measurements carried out on twenty or so individual samples of each indicates that the compounds were in fact homogeneous, single phase alloys. Samples of the compounds consisting of 0.0003 to 0.002 moles were used in the calorimetric measurements. A solvent bath consisting of approximately 80 g of 99.9 pct pure Sn was used for each series of runs and its heat capacity was determined at regular intervals throughout the experiments using pure tin or tungsten calibration samples. Measurements were made of the heat of solution of lanthanum in liquid tin at 725", 750C, and 775°K and at compositions up to 2.21, 4.76, and 5.25 at. pct La at the three temperatures respectively. In every case, the heat of solution of lanthanum remained constant at its limiting value, within experimental limits, up to the highest lanthanum concentration investigated. Since no change in was observed, it was concluded that the liquid/liquid + LaSn, phase boundary had not been

Jan 1, 1969

Jan 1, 1917

Jan 1, 1930

By P. E. Baker

Approximate solutions are presented for the heat-flow equations in a loss-free linear system with a moving source and with heat transfer by convection and conduction, representing in situ combustion in an oil reservoir. The rate of heat generation and the velocity vf of the source (flame front) are assumed constant. A cold front or convection front caused by the cooling effect of in-jected air develops behind the flame front and moves with velocity vc, which is determined by the thermal properties of the air and rock. Because of thermal conduction the fronts are not sharp; i.e., they do not represent temperature discontinuities. The following solutions apply after a sufficiently long time. where Q is heat generated per unit volume of formation, k is thermal conductivity, CF is volumetric heat capacity, a is thermal diffusivity, and subscripts 1 and 2 refer to values behind and ahead of the flame front, respectively. The parameter CF2 is contained in v . Te is initial reservoir temper- . C2 e ature and air-injection temperature. Other mathematically possible solutions are presented. The different solutions result from the use of different values for various physical parameters. The solution just presented is thought to be most commonly applicable. INTRODUCTION In this paper, approximate analytical expressions are derived for the temperature profile developed in the underground combustion method of oil recovery. A qualitative description of the process may be found in a paper by Tadema.1 The flame front is regarded as a moving source with a constant rate of heat generation. Heat transfer is by conduction and convection. Previous publications, of which a few are cited here, 2-5 have also attacked this problem and have presented solutions pertaining to different methods of approximating or idealizing the process studied. The present paper also treats an idealized case: linear flow is assumed for heat and fluids, and vaporization and condensation effects are neglected. The results obtained are similar to those derived by Bailey and Larkin,3 but are obtained by an entirely different procedure. The method used here should give considerably greater insight into the physics of the in situ combustion process. Four types of cases are considered, distinguished by thermal and fluid-flow properties of the system. A constant rate of heat generation and constant rate of flame-front advance are assumed. Flame-front temperature is determined for each case using a heat balance which involves the entire temperature profile. The applicability of the different solutions to real systems is discussed after they are all presented. Again, this is done for the purpose of understanding better the physics of the process. Consideration of the nonapplicable solutions and of the reasons for their not applying is significant. In a paper by Cooperman,4 the only case solved is one considered here as not applicable. Fluid flow, as such (pressures, saturations, oil recovery, etc.), is not treated. This subject has been covered in a paper by Wilson, et al.6 Also, we are not concerned with requirements for continuance of the process; we only attempt to determine the temperature history for cases where the process has continued for some time. PHYSICAL SYSTEM AND APPROACH TO PROBLEM A linear flow (heat and fluid) system is assumed and the x-axis is taken parallel to the flow direction. The combustion zone (flame front) is vertical,

By Erwin Pink

It has been pointed out in a previous publication' that, for a given strain rate, serrated yielding can be observed only at certain test temperatures. Fig. 1 shows the results obtained for polycrystalline and re-crystallized tantalum, Va group in the periodic table of elements, where serrations in the course of deformation match the decrease of total elongation. However, there was no evidence of repeated yielding when testing molybdenum or tungsten, VIa group, at similar conditions, i.e., annealed and air-cooled samples (serrations have been found in quenched tungsten2). The reason for the observed serrations in the stress-strain curve are dissolved impurities on interstitial sites of the lattice. Of importance is the concentration of oxygen, carbon, and nitrogen, which are in random solution. Two methods to calculate the limiting concentrations for serrated yielding have been evaluated and applied with more or less success in estimating the role of carbon and nitrogen in mild steel.3 J. Friedel4 has given two equations, which determine the upper and lower strain rates i for the appearance of serrations at a certain test temperature: W denotes the binding energy of the interstitial atom, -1 ev for refractory metals;5 e' the portion of continuous strain in the discontinuous stress-strain curve, measured as -3x10-3; b the Burgers vector, c the concentration, see Table 11, in atom fractions; p the dislocation density, -2 X l09 per cm2 at an average stress ?, -15 kp per mm2 at medium strain. k stands for the Boltzmann constant, T for the absolute temperature, and D for the diffusion coefficient. Table I. Eq. [1], for a given strain rate, determines the minimum temperature, and [2] the maximum temperature, below or above which no "dynamic strain-aging" can occur. According to the calculation, which uses the given quantities, serrations should only be observed within the cross-hatched temperature regions in Fig. 1, and this is in good agreement with the experiment. The effect of varying impurity concentrations is indicated schematically in Fig. 2: only Eq. [I] is affected. Setting Eq. [I] equal to [2], one can calculate the limiting concentration cmin which first causes serrations. The second method uses the aging condition by Cottrell and Bilby6,7 \£i/ \ n. a / where n(t) is the number of impurity atoms, which segregate at a dislocation line of 1 cm length after the time t (t in our case is the time between "repeated yield drops" in the serrated curve, or, the time until the above mentioned strain E' is obtained, i.e., -1 sec for medium intensity or serrations). no is the number of impurity atoms in 1 cm3 and A = Qb4ep[(1 + v)/(l - v)], derived from equations given in Ref. 7. p is the shear modulus, 18,800 kp per mm2 for tantalum, 12,200 for molybdenum, AE the tetragonal distortion caused by interstitial impurities in a bcc lattice (approximately 0.4 for both tantalum and molybdenum) and v Poisson's ratio (0.35 for tantalum, 0.30 for molybdenum). From Eq. [3], combined with the condition for a pronounced yield drop as formulated by cottrel16 (at least one impurity atom segregated at the unit length of a dislocation), again a no min, and hence the concentration Cmin can be calculated.

Jan 1, 1970

By R. P. Rothwell

THE first difficulty mentioned is that in some instances two or more beds of coal separated by sandstone or slate rocks of considerable thickness in one part of a basin, are found running together in another part. Of course, we may happen to strike first the part of the basin where there is but a single seam, and in this case the bed would appear to divide into two or more branches within a short distance. Such cases are not rare in the anthracite coal-fields. I would suggest as an explanation of this phenomenon the gradual sinking of the peat-marsh-the embryo coal-bed-on one side, and the moving forward of the marsh, so that on one part of the bed the formation of peat would still be progressing, while another part, being under water, would be covered with mud and sand. Thus we have different portions of the same bed of different ages. Now if the sinking of the marsh be stopped for a time, the bed will become thicker in the portions left exposed, and if the sinking now changes in direction, so that the part that had previously gone down com¬mences to rise, we should have the phenomenon of a bed, continuous throughout, with one portion overlying another, and separated from it by rock strata. These are exactly the conditions observed in splitting beds. While one side of the lake is sinking, and the peat-marsh moving on in that direction, the other side may be rising,

Jan 1, 1873

Executive-A. R. LEDOUX, chairman. Membership-J. V. W. REYNDERS, chairman. Finance-J. V. N. Dorr, chairman. Library-E. GYBBON SPILSBURY, chairman. Papers and Publications-BRADLEY STOUGHTON, chairman. Nominations-POPE YEATMAN, chairman.

Jan 12, 1919

By Francois E. Heuze

INTRODUCTION Rock slope stability typically is governed by the geological discontinuities. This stability can be improved by drainage, unloading, adjustment in slope orientation, adjustment in slope angle, and also by reinforcement such as bolts or tendons. This paper addresses the modeling of bolt reinforcement in rock slopes. Most geological discontinuities such as joints have rough surfaces; they dilate during shear displacement. Their shear strength is characterized by two envelopes (Fig. 1); the peak envelope is distinct from the residual envelope when the joints can dilate. If the dilation is restrained transversely, such as with bolts, the normal stress will increase and the joint strength also will increase. It has been demonstrated that this increase may be considerable (Obert et al., 1976). The new normal stress at peak strength is a com- posite function of the properties of the rock mass and of the steel (Heuze, 1979). Hence, the dilation and its resultant effects on joint shear strength must be included in the analysis and design of the reinforcement. We present a model which can be used to perform such an analysis. Early studies of rock reinforcement in mining and civil applications (Lang, 1957 - Panek, 1962 - Osen and Parsons, 1966 - Lang, 19721, did not consider the specific effects of bolts on joint shear strength. In 1973, Heuze and Goodman reported direct shear tests on rough sandstone joints with bolts perpendicular to the joint plane (Fig. 2). The peak shear strength of such joints was greatly in excess of the shear strength of the unbolted joints. The excess

Jan 1, 1983

Two 6.17-m-diam (20.25-ft) shafts, said to be the largest ever opened with mechanical raise boring techniques, were completed in May and June 1978, at Monterey Coal Co.'s No. 1 mine near Carlinville, Ill. According to the shaft contractor for the project, Frontier-Kemper Constructors, the openings are 60% greater in cross section than the largest previous raise-bored shaft, which had a diameter of 4.85 m (16 ft). Both vertical shafts are 93 m (305 ft) in total depth, with the upper 28-30 m (90-100 ft) sunk and lined by conventional methods through unconsolidated overburden and the remainder mechanically bored through sedimentary rock. The two shafts will be used for service access as well as to augment ventilation.

Jan 12, 1978

Conquista, the uranium mining and milling complex owned jointly by Continental Oil Co. and Pioneer Nuclear, Inc., has begun operations in Falls City, Texas. The mill has been designed to produce 1.5 million lb of U3O, from 600,000 tpy of ore mined. Currently, the plant processes a maximum 2000 tpd of ore. Mine Planning Texas ore deposits are small and scattered in comparison to other uranium mining districts. Those to be mined at Conquista range from a few acres to more than 100 acres in size. Ore thickness ranges from a few inches to over 15 ft, and depth from less than 20 ft to more than 170 ft below ground surface. Distance from the mill ranges up to 35 mi.

Jan 8, 1972

By Satyajeet Ghosh, Edward F. Glynn

Many of the proposed techniques for calculating the reliability of rock slopes utilize Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo approaches are attractive because they provide means of solving probabilistic problems with deterministic algorithms. One disadvantage shared by all simulation-based stability analyses is that they assume all the random variables are independently distributed. The paper focuses on the independence assumption and examines the effect of correlation on the probability of failure. In particular it considers the influence of possible (albeit hypothetical) correlation between joint attitudes [(8)] and joint friction angles [($)]. The study indicates that neglecting correlation can introduce significant errors into the reliability computations. With a modest positive correlation between [8] and [$] the error can lead to a 100% overestimate of the probability of failure.

Jan 1, 1982