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The words ""Uncertainty"" and ""Risk"" pervade every discussion about mining exploration and investment. Perhaps these terms are subjectively understood by industry professionals, but objective portrayal of these concepts outside the industry is a woefully undeveloped science. This paper addresses current industry understanding and practice regarding quantitative risk assessment techniques, and provides examples of the application of three of these techniques. Probabilistic techniques for financial risk assessment are valuable adjuncts to conventional financial analysis, and address a range of issues not assessable by any other means. The value of whole-of-project probabilistic risk assessment is currently debatable for decision-making purposes, but is seen as important as a mechanism to focus attention to the critical issues that ultimately impact on project success. The dissection of project capital into risk and non-risk components provides valuable insights into risk characteristics not readily quantifiable in any other way. This technique also provides a framework for more objective ""what if?"" scenario evaluation and for the capital structure of resource projects. Finally, mechanisms for the valuation of undeveloped reserves are examined, and guidelines suggested. The importance of reliability in production cost estimates is highlighted and the impact of early development on reserve valuations is discussed. The importance of economics throughout all stages of the evaluation process is fundamental.

Jan 1, 1994

By P T. Stoker, A Allman, D P. Carville

Classification of mineral resource estimates is one of the most important responsibilities of the Competent Person. In recent years, classification decisions have been driven more by the detailed block-by-block attributes generated by the now widely applied geostatistical estimation methods, and less by a general geological overview. This is increasingly resulting in æspotted dogÆ outputs, in which blocks of Inferred Resources or unclassified material separate blocks of Measured and/or Indicated Resources, or individual drill holes are surrounded by annuli of Measured and Indicated Resource blocks. Not only are such outputs potentially misleading, since they ignore fundamentals such as continuity of geology and mineralisation between drill holes and the imprecise nature of resource estimation, they can also cause substantial problems for engineers undertaking mine designs and estimating ore reserves, particularly for underground mines. Competent Persons for mineral resources must keep in mind the purpose of their work, and should use their experience and judgement to avoid or smooth out æspotted dogÆ classifications, providing a result commensurate with the level of geological and resource estimation confidence. For their part, ore reserve Competent Persons must understand the resource estimation and classification process, and should question resource classifications that are not consistent with the level of geological and resource estimation confidence.

Jan 1, 2006

The Southern 'B' lode orebody at the New Broken Hill Consolidated Limited (NBHC) mine, Broken Hill, is a continuation of the zinc-rich orebody that was first mined in NBHC in the 1940's. Preliminary diamond drilling in the early 1960's resulted in sufficient information to delineate the southern extension of the presently mined 'B' lode orebody, In 1966 the sinking of a 7.3 metre diameter circular shaft (No. 3 Airway) was commenced to improve the ventilation of the southern extremities of existing workings and to provide a base to further explore and develop the orebody extension. Development on four levels was started in the early 1970'.s to link the existing workings with the new shaft. Three possible mining methods - sublevel open stoping, loader cut and fill with ramp access and sublevel caving - were investigated and the decision was made to mine the orebody by transverse sublevel longhole stopes and pillars with trackless equipment and ramp access between the major working levels.

Jan 1, 1977

By Fair A, Oxenford J

Syncrude Canada Ltd operates one of the largest open pit mines in the world at Fort McMurray in northern Alberta, Canada. In 1993, Syncrude mined and processed 131.2 Mt of oil sands to produce 67.0 MBbls of synthetic crude oil (SCO). This represents approximately 13 per cent of Canada's crude oil requirements. In addition to the oil sand mined, Syncrude moved approximately 96 Mt of overburden ahead of the mining operation in 1993. Since start-up in 1978, Syncrude has had outstanding success in improving the safety and reliability of its operation. Much of this success has been achieved by reducing risk through the application of new and improved technology. This improved safety and reliability has resulted in, among other things, very significant improvements in operating costs and profitability. This paper discusses some of the technology applications that have been introduced at Syncrude to reduce risks to people, equipment, operations and the environment. Three specific examples will be discussed in detail to demonstrate how reductions in risk have greatly improved the operation.

Jan 1, 1994

As a result of cheap Maui gas and plentiful hydro-electricity, over the past few decades New Zealand has enjoyed some of the cheapest energy of any OECD country. The situation is changing; at best we are facing some radical changes in energy use, at worst we are facing a crisis resulting from the following:   Cause 1: Maui gas will be exhausted by 2012. Distorted pricing and supply contracts; resulted in Huntly Power Station, a coal mine mouth generator running on 70 per cent Maui gas until very recently!   Cause 2: Investment in new generating capacity (and transmission) is woefully inadequate; as a result hydro lake levels are being continually pushed to the limits.   Cause 3: Distorted thinking is everywhere, for example; æWe will find more cheap gasÆ. æGas is clean û coal is dirtyÆ. Hot air  û ægreen alternatives such as wind generation will save usÆ. æNo NuclearÆ. The outcomes of the distorted thinking will be price increases, then shortages (there is nothing like "black-outs" to focus national thinking) and finally recession.   But what can NZ do? - Mine Coal. Coal jump-started the industrial revolution, it can provide the transition to post-gas and oil. NZ has the second highest reserves of coal per capita in the world, yet we use less that any other country with significant coal reserves. Our exports of our best coal have increased threefold, yet out own consumption has remained static at about 1-1.5 Mtpa for the last 30 years. Our coal is NZ owned and inexpensive relative to other energy sources, even allowing for infrastructure and environmental costs.   What can we do? We as mining professionals can promote informed responsible development and investment in the country's mining and energy business. We can galvanise public opinion on issues such as æunbundlingÆ our entire energy chain from mine-to generator-through transmission, even if the nuclear issue has to wait! With oil above US$70/bbl substitution is feasible. For individuals, there is always solar!

Jan 1, 2006

During the life of a mining project in Papua New Guinea (PNG), the greatest impact is on the people of the project area and the most intense, day-to-day contact is between these people and the project's field staff. Yet formal structures at present emphasise contact between much higher levels of national government and company personnel. Whilst understandable, this is unfortunate particularly since, given the nature of PNG politics, villagers do have a powerful influence on project success, as recent dramatic events on Bougainville have indicated. A greater role for local views and greater attention to such views by other parties is clearly required. But to achieve a successful marriage between informal village politics and the formal structures of investment procedures will require considerable patience and adjustment. This should be reflected in the cost of project development and be regarded as being as of a significance equal to that currently accorded to the technical aspects of project development.

Jan 1, 1990

Much of the theory upon which the Sublevel Caving (SLC) method is based was developed in Scandinavia many years ago. It was based mainly on æbinÆ theory and æellipsoid of drawÆ configurations derived from sandbox models. In many cases, classical SLC layouts influenced by these early theories obtained relatively poor results. Early dilution entry, low tonnage factors and low recoveries were commonly experienced. SLC soon gained the reputation of being a high dilution, low recovery and development intensive method. This led to SLC falling into disfavour generally, other than as a pillar reclamation method used at the end of the life of mines. More recently a number of mines, notably those in Australia, have adopted SLC as a primary extraction method and have achieved good recovery results. The reason for the better results is believed to be an outcome of modifications in some of the basic design parameters and operational procedures. This has led to questions being raised regarding the original æbin theoryÆ assumptions and classical SLC layout designs. It is clear that the fragmentation and flow characteristics occurring in a choke blast situation (compaction of waste, variable size and shape of fragmentation throughout the ring) conflicts significantly with the assumptions of regular loose flow of uniform, fine grained, material in a bin. Interactive versus independent draw conditions can also materially effect the outcome of a SLC operation. The good results obtained more recently can only be explained by using ænewÆ models of behaviour, which have to a large extent been borrowed from block caving. If these models are correct, they point to a number of design and operational changes that can be applied to improve the effectiveness of SLC. This paper discusses the factors that may not have been fully considered in early SLC design and modelling. It emphasises the importance of delayed dilution entry as a primary objective of sound SLC design and provides a basis for efficient SLC design and operation.

Jan 1, 2000

Many mining companies aim to integrate sustainability principles into their new projects. There is an intention for improvement, but frequently this results in little more than 'business as usual' projects that retrospectively categorise controls for environmental and social risks as sustainability initiatives as part of a public relations exercise. The successful implementation of sustainability requires a change of mind-set and behaviours at an organisational and personal level. In addition, sustainability incorporates a very wide range of interests and technical disciplines. One of the key challenges is in understanding how and when to pull these diverse threads together within a project or organisational process. This paper will explore a number of themes: What does it mean to implement a project in accordance with sustainability principles? How far beyond 'business as usual' is it reasonable to go, and what is the business case for this? Why do the intentions for sustainability sometimes fail and how can we prevent this happening in future? People are instrumental in delivering sustainability; how do we embed sustainability thinking into their behaviours and decision-making? The approaches that have been taken to integrating sustainability in design; what has and has not worked and some of the barriers to integrating sustainability into design? The authors will discuss these themes drawing on case studies from URS' experience in integrating sustainability into large projects. The authors will discuss the need for: a strategic approach which provides a simple framework for tactical decision-making and the consequences of taking tactical decisions in the absence of this framework, alignment of the project team and promotion of a culture of innovation, a shift from a risk/compliance mentality to an opportunity identification mindset, and a systematic approach to integrating sustainability into project design processes.

Jun 1, 2010

It is a sad commentary on human nature that for every successful, unscrupulous entrepreneur you need a multitude of incautious, greedy investors. One wonders whether is will be ever possible to completely protect investors from their reckless gambling instincts, which are so widely encouraged elsewhere in society.

Jan 1, 1989

By D Horacek, I K. Sheppard

Ok Tedi is in a period of transition. By 2008 mill feed will consist of higher levels of high-grade but metallurgically challenging skarn ores. Additionally, the Taranaki pit will start production in 2008 along with the start-up of a new pyrite concentrator. Taranaki ores are very high in sulfur. Sulfur is captured in a pyrite concentrate prior to tailing entering the Ok Tedi River. These and other complex scheduling issues will need to be resolved over a critical three-year period. With these requirements in mind, Ok Tedi contracted AMC Consultants to develop a custom version of the Life of Business Optimisation System (LOBOS¬) to assist medium-term production scheduling at Ok Tedi. LOBOS utilities enable Ok Tedi planning engineers to:import polygon-based reserve data (Blast Masters) from MineSightÆs Interactive Planning Tools (IP Tools); graphically construct block sequencing and material flow constraints; edit constraints defining standard scheduling, processing and financial relationships; define dump and stockpile attributes; and assign capacities to production systems, plants, dumps and stockpiles. LOBOS converts Ok TediÆs production scenario into a mixed integer program (MIP) and submits the resulting model to IlogÆs Cplex MIP Solver. The Solver seeks an optimal production schedule that maximises net revenue per mill hour while meeting all constraints. This paper introduces Ok Tedi and its production requirements and relates these requirements to the facilities developed for an Ok Tedi version of LOBOS.

Jan 1, 2007

International tenders for contract mining opportunities require the Contractor to make an assessment of risk for an operation with a life span of up to twenty-five years usually based on data made available by the Client. This paper seeks to address how the Contractor assesses the data and quantifies the risks associated with the project. The areas of risk are common to most projects, but in the--Lontractor's case, risk assessment is carried out on the Client's data base and within a compressed time frame of usually less than six months. Incorporation of that risk assessment into the contract documentation is also discussed. Practical examples are given in a number of areas.

Jan 1, 1986

The paper continues an account, begun in a previous paper, of experimental work carried out by the author whilst a member of the metallurgical staff at the Cockle Creek Works. The general method of the description of the plant and works practice adopted previously has been followed.The paper is a short account of the methods used in and the results of an investigation of the fume losses from the various parts of the plant.MEASUREMENT OF VOLUMETwo independent methods were used. The first depended on a number of pitot-tube measurements of velocity. These readings were taken in the stacks leading from the various furnaces at a considerable height above the ground so as to obtain as regular conditions as possible at the points where the readings were taken.Three openings were made in each stack and the pitot tube inserted into each opening in turn and readings taken at the centres of imaginary areas of equal size. The average velocity in the stack was thus obtained.After four tests had been made at the smelter stack, which removed the gases from all blast furnaces in use, the centre of velocity of the gases for each test was calculated and was found to be practically constant in position. The previous procedure was varied in subsequent tests on this stack by taking a succession of readings at the centre of velocity instead of at various points...

Jan 1, 1925

THE paper is principally eoncerncd with experimental work carried out the author whilst a number of the metallurgical staff at the Cockle Creek works. The metallurgical has been discussed sufficiently for the reader to follow the course of the experiments but the actual plant has only been described in so far as it effected metallurgical treatment, since the arrangement of such a smelter is a matter of common knowledge.The lead-roasting plant consisted of Godfrey roaster, Dwight-Lloyd maehines and Huntingdon-Heberlein pots. The usual treatment was in the Godfrey furnaces, followed by sintering in the Huntingdon- Heberlein pots. The paper is divided into two parts in the Godfrey furnaces and Huntingdon-Heberlein pots. An account of experiments on the utilization of the hood gases from the Huntingdon-Heberlein pots for acid making...

Jan 1, 1924

The Mount Whaleback iron ore deposit at Newman, Western Australia comprises the largest known continuous iron ore deposit in Australia, originally with a Measured Resource in excess of 1700 Mt of hematite ore. The deposit occurs within the Hamersley Province which forms part of the Pilbara Block in the NW of Western Australia (Figure 1). The Mount Whaleback iron ore deposit, together with a number of discrete iron ore bearing satellite orebodies in the Newman district, contributes to the Newman Lump and Fines products. Extensive quality control systems are utilised from mining to shipping to ensure that each product meets a narrow geochemical target grade range.

Jan 1, 1997

By Y Yang, J Skrypniuk

The Jinfeng mine is Sino Gold's flagship project and is the second largest gold mine in China. Sino Gold Limited (SGL) holds 82 per cent equity in the Sino-Foreign joint venture Sino Guizhou Jinfeng Mining Limited (SGJML) with a Chinese partner. Jinfeng is located in a relatively remote site in southwestern Guizhou province. The orebody is considered to be the largest known Carlin type deposit in China. Jinfeng Plant has the world's third largest BIOX« bacterial oxidation facilities (790 t/d), treating highly refractory concentrate generated from crushing, semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) and ball milling and bulk sulfide flotation operations. The Jinfeng Plant construction started in February 2005, commissioning was completed in April 2007, and commercial gold production was achieved in September 2007. This paper describes the successful operations of Jinfeng Plant over the last two years. The key events of the project development are described, from the project background and process design, through to the commissioning and achieving design mill throughput of 3600 t/d resulting 180 000 ounces of gold per year. Process aspects of the BIOX« and carbon-in-leach (CIL) operations over the last two years are discussed which illustrate a very high BIOX« oxidation rate (more that 97 per cent) and excellent CIL recovery (more than 96 per cent). The management of the Jinfeng plant CIL tailings detoxification and filtration is described, and Jinfeng has became the first BIOX« processing plant to have achieved dry stacking of detoxified and pressure filtered CIL tailings. Current efforts to recover cyanide from CIL detoxified solution and the achievement of a zero discharge site water balance are also introduced. Many improvement projects have been made over the last two years which have culminated in a 15 per cent increase in mill throughput over the design and BIOX« CIL recovery increasing from 92.5 per cent to 96 per cent. Significant operating cost reductions from lowered of acid, lime and cyanide usage through process modifications and technical innovations are discussed.

Jan 1, 2009

S. A. Tomich (Consulting Geologist, Perth) : I would like to commend Mr. Haycraft on his presentation on the economic geology of the North End of Kalgoorlie. This is an intriguing area which is in the Kalgoorlie field but not of it, inasmuch as it is separated spatially from the main Golden Mile by the Golden Pike Fault. Mr. Haycraft has stressed the differences-the mineralogical and structural differences of economic significance between the two areas.I would like to ask whether he is satisfied that the lithological sequence in the North End is the duplicate of that in the main Golden Mile area irrespective of the postulated effects of erosion, and more specifically whether there is any chance that the quartz-dolerite-greenstone of the North End may be in any way dissimilar from the quartz-dolerite-greenstoneof the Golden Mile which is tellurude bearing.J. A. Haycraft: In relating the quartz-dolerite in the Hannan's North-Mount Charlotte area back to the Golden Mile, we find some quite close similarities. Although the rocks are similar they are not necessarily one and the same.At Mount Charlotte we have three varieties of dolerite- a coarse-grained gabbroic dolerite on the eastern side of the orebody, the host rock medium grained and on the western side, a fine grained dolerite. Further west we have an amphibolitic variety of quartz dolerite.Recent drilling south of the Golden Pike fault on the Enterprise No. 20 level had indicated a remarkably similar sequence of rocks. We drilled west through a wide section of medium grained rocks into a fine grained rock and then into amphibolitic quartz dolerite before intersecting the Golden Pike fault. Williamstown dolerite was located west...

Jan 1, 1965

By P M. Cepuritis

In hard rock mining, large-scale bulk mining methods such as block or panel caving (BC/PC) and sublevel caving (SLC) typically generate significant surface deformations such as subsidence. Surface deformations need to be considered in the project evaluation and planning stages of cave mines, for example, planning and location of critical underground mine planning infrastructure such as portals, haulage and vent shafts, access roads, or potential damage to existing infrastructure, changes to surface water management, waste dump, stockpile and tailings dam stability, and environmental impacts. Assessing the impact and risks associated with subsidence is a key component in robust mine planning and operations management.

Nov 29, 2022

By E Villaescusa, C Drover

The stability of access tunnels is one of the main engineering challenges in deep underground mine construction. Many underground hard rock mining operations are now reaching depths where the induced stresses are such that sudden and violent failure of the excavations can occur very soon after construction. The loading conditions on the installed ground support schemes are often underestimated by conventional engineering design methods. Therefore, the actual loading conditions often exceed the installed ground support capacity. This can result in failure of the excavations and, in extreme cases, potentially closure of mining operations amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars in lost production. More frequently, violent excavation instability at great depth causes operational delays, costly and unplanned rehabilitation, as well as risks to worker safety. In order to address this challenge, this paper briefly summarises a modern, innovative approach to the design and construction of mine development at great depth. The process follows seven main steps. The first step is to characterise the rock mass strength, structure and stress. The second step is a stability assessment, which identifies the plausible modes of excavation failure, based on the rock mass characterisation. The third step is the definition of an excavation geometry which is harmonic to the high stress conditions. The fourth step is to prepare a site-specific face destressing drill and blast design which will reduce the potential for rock mass instability during the development construction cycle. The fifth step is to accurately quantify the expected loading conditions on the installed ground support. The method of doing so is uniquely analytical and probabilistic. It is based on the natural mechanical relationships between rock strength, structure, induced stress and the physical characteristics of the instability, including its mass and ejection velocity. The sixth step of the design process is to specify a ground support scheme arrangement with sufficient strength and displacement capacity to exceed the rock mass demand by a safe margin. The final stage is to install the complete ground support scheme using mechanised technologies which minimise the exposure of the equipment operators to unsupported ground at the tunnel face.

Nov 29, 2022

By P Revell, B Adair, D King, L Keeney

Grade Engineering®, integrated across the mine value chain, has a pivotal role to play in achieving step change reductions in energy and water usage in mine operations. High levels of gangue rejection in the mine can significantly improve mineral head grades and overall productivity. A highly successful example is described at the Minera San Cristóbal (MSC) operation. The nature of the mineralisation in their “intrusive” ore domains in particular has facilitated high rejection rates (75 % of the mass), with significant upgrading of metal to the “accepts” streams (equating to a 2.6 times upgrade in the intrinsic Nett Smelter Return). Results from a series of production trials have confirmed these strong upgrades, resulting in the transformation of mineralised “marginal wastes” to high grade ore feedstocks. If new approaches to more energy and water efficient comminution and separation technologies can also realise gangue rejection at finer sizes in the concentrator, then preconcentration strategies across the value chain also offer the promise of no wet tailings treatment facilities and greatly reduced volumes of waste streams. This “No Tails” strategy is discussed, along with the integrated technologies needed to realise its effect. The work suggests a pathway and insights of a sustainable future for the Minerals Industry, unconstrained by Energy and Water, along with no requirement to produce problematic disposal streams. This strategy has the potential to significantly reposition the social, environmental, financial, and regulatory context of existing and new mining opportunities.

Nov 10, 2020

By E Kabwe, M Karakus

Deep hard rock underground mines tend to experience high stress as such drives exhibit dynamic responses attributed to a rock burst variant (strainburst). This dynamic behaviour is difficult to predict, and every effort is made to devise the appropriate dynamic support system for its associated failure restraint. This paper outlines the back analysis and the support scheme design for an underground decline that exhibited damage from a dynamic strainburst occurrence. It employs a decline section that experienced a dynamically loaded strainburst that initiated rock fragment ejections. The procedure involves a preliminary structural analysis, a seismic intensity measure, and a rock mass simulation to determine the static stress concentration and ground support system response. The numerical simulation is conducted in FLAC3D which employs the advanced strain-softening IMASS constitutive model governed by two Hoek–Brown (HB) bounding yield surfaces. To account for the post-peak brittleness response associated with strainburst the plastic strain multiplier () is adjusted to 0.0 < < 1.0. The back-analysis shows that the occurrence was initiated by a low-intensity seismic wave that superimposed an extra stress component to the initial static stress which triggered rock fragment ejections. Additionally, the appropriate support scheme comprised of Weldmesh, Fibrecrete, static (split set) and yieldable (Kinloc) reinforcements is recommended and implemented. Thereafter, the bolt’s efficiency is evaluated based on the axial force and elongation capacities and then compared with the published bolt performance data. The evaluation results show that the maximum bolt axial force (0.1 per cent) and elongation (0.006 per cent) are below the designed capacity and rupture strain.

Nov 29, 2022