World Iron Ore Supply And Demand

It is indeed a pleasure for me to have this opportunity to discuss with you a subject which I find infinitely interesting and intriguing - namely, world-wide iron ore supply and demand. We will be examining the following: (i) current iron ore production and requirements; (ii) the major ore producing countries; (iii) the seaborne iron ore trade; (iv) ore grades or types; and (v) future requirements. For those who may not be familiar with the iron ore mining industry, it may be useful to know at the outset that our industry has been plagued with overcapacity for the past seven years. The optimism which prompted substantial expansion of productive capacity in the early to mid-1970's has unfortunately proved to have been unfounded. I shall begin by describing where we are today as well as a little about how we got there. In the latter regard, it's not so much that historical knowledge will solve any of the industry's problems or provide clairvoyance with regard to the future. Rather it's a feeling on my part that some knowledge of the past will provide a useful perspective capable of enhancing our analysis of future trends. At the time of writing, the most recent year for which we have definitive world-wide iron ore production and consumption statistics is 1980. In that year the world consumed approximately 859 million metric tons of iron ore to produce approximately 510 million metric tons of primary iron consisting of 502 million tons of pig iron and 8 million tons of sponge iron. Crude steel production for the same period attained a level of 719 million metric tons. Because it is possible in today's world to produce steel without consuming iron ore simply by melting scrap, the key statistic insofar as iron ore demand is concerned is primary iron production. In 1980 the ratio of iron ore consumption to primary iron production was 1.68:1.00. The comparable ratio over the past seven years has varied from 1.63 to 1.87 and averaged 1.72:1.00. All the same, as a practical matter crude steel production and iron ore consumption tend to parallel one another closely, and for the time being a good rule of thumb is that to produce an average ton of crude steel requires 1.20 tons of iron ore. Let's turn our attention now to the regions where the 859 million tons of iron ore necessary to support 1980 world-wide iron and steel production were produced. Not surprisingly, most of the ore was produced in the same region where it was smelted. In round numbers 65% of the world's iron ore production is currently consumed in the same general region as it is produced, while 35% enters the seaborne trade and is transported in ocean vessels to a more remote consuming area. Approximately 85% of the world's seaborne iron ore trade is directed to the Western European and Japanese markets, both of which are almost entirely dependent on off-shore sources for their mammoth iron ore requirements. The following tabulation lists, in order, the twelve leading iron ore producing countries in 1980 as well as their percentages of total and free-world production; in addition their export potentials are presented. As a group these countries accounted in that year for 89% of world-wide production which stood at 871 million tons. Leading World Iron Ore Producing Countries [ ] One will first note that world iron ore production is dominated by the top four producers - namely, the U.S.S.R., Brazil, Australia and the U.S.A. - which together accounted for nearly 60% of total 1980 production. Of these four major producers the U.S.A. and the U.S.S.R. produce almost exclusively for consumption in their own regions, whereas Australia and Brazil produce primarily for the seaborne export trade. In fact Australia and Brazil accounted for about 50% of all seaborne iron ore trade in 1980! It is also interesting to note that Australia, Brazil, the U.S.A. and Canada accounted for nearly 60% of free world iron ore production in 1980. Once again the importance of Australia and Brazil shows itself, with their share alone of free world production reaching 35%. As has already been noted, a significant 35% of the world's iron ore production in the year 1980 was