Using Risk Analysis To Support Decision Making On The Central Subway Project

What decision making tools and methods are available to a project owner when there is no clear differentiator between construction alternatives? A team led by a joint venture of Parsons Brinckerhoff and PGH Wong Engineering (PB/Wong) has been providing preliminary engineering services to the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA). The SFMTA and PB/Wong team developed several alternative construction methods for the tunnels and stations of the San Francisco Central Subway Project, none of which could be judged clearly better than another using traditional approaches and metrics. The team employed a risk assessment and analysis frame-works as a means of comparative analysis, drawing upon the knowledge of industry experts in the geotechnical, tunneling and construction fields to assist in the effort. This paper presents the approach and results of a cost and schedule risk analysis for two such analyses designed to answer two different questions regarding the advisability of different construction approaches. These assessments paved the way for key decision making in the preliminary engineering phase of the project and formed the foundation for continuing risk management efforts on the project. The focus of this paper is primarily the first two stages of risk management?identification and assessment?and some of the organizational dynamic issues that arise in such efforts.