US Share of World Mineral Markets: Where Are We Headed?

The future of the world's minerals industries is often painted as bleak. Peter Drucker has repeatedly proposed that the demand for minerals has become "uncoupled" from world economic growth.' This implies that, while mineral demand was in the past linked to the growing demand for and consumption of goods and services, further world development will not require substantial mineral inputs. Lester Thurow noted that for these reasons the US minerals industry is diminishing in scale and economic importance.2 There is some documented evidence of such uncoupling, and the demand for minerals may indeed diminish in the future. But such announcements are, to this point, no more than speculation. For instance, is it not just as likely that renewed environmental concerns will cause increased demand for the relatively innocuous environmental properties of metals, replacing plastics? And even if the prophesied demand decreases do occur, a sufficient fall in metal prices due to technological advances could increase the quantity of minerals demanded above current levels, in spite of leftward shifting demand curves. Thus, worldwide mineral production activity may increase or decrease in the future and no one can say whether more or fewer of the earth's citizens will become involved in the extraction and processing of minerals.