US Bureauof Mines Computer Program Helps Analyze Tax Law Effects on Minerals Projects

Perhaps the hottest item on the agendas of most state legislators this year is the state budget. The main question: Where will all the dollars come from to finance health care programs, state jobs, unemployment compensation programs, and on and on? This is especially so since people are out of work, business bankruptcies are up, sales are down, and incoming revenues from some sources have decreased or dried up. A sure bet is that state taxes will be increased in some form or another. The mining industry could face increased income taxes, property taxes, severance taxes, or even a host of new taxes (if the state does not already have them) like a gross receipts tax, investment tax, or tax on revenues made outside state borders. That's bad news for an already depressed industry, even though increased taxes may be the least of the industry's worries in the current economic climate. While reopening existing mines and developing most new mineral projects depends primarily on higher commodity prices, new taxes still could pose long term concerns for mine project development. Just how mineral tax law impacts a project is not easy to figure. It involves a complex set of calculations based on interpretations of numerous federal, state, and local tax laws that change almost annually. At best, projections of tax effects for the life of a mine are educated guesses. At the same time, projections are necessary to evaluate the economic feasibility of a mineral project. At a recent Technology Transfer Seminar, the US Bureau of Mines introduced a computer software program designed to evaluate the feasibility of a mineral project and to determine the tax effects on the project's discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR). The program, called MINSIM, began in 1967 as a 200-statement FORTRAN II program for evaluating a hypothetical large-scale open-pit gold mine. This single-commodity oriented program employed discrete simulation techniques and a continuous DCFROR was used to measure the effect of changes in revenues and costs. Over the past 15 years, MINSIM has developed into a program 70 to 100 times larger than the original. Basically, it will analyze costs and parameters specific to an identified deposit, then determine the DCFROR. Or by using a specified DCFROR, it will determine the primary commodity price required to attain that specified rate of return. MINSIM, which is explained in detail in this article, is available from the Division of Minerals Availability, USBM free of charge. Written in FORTRAN IV, it comes on punch cards or magnetic tape and is compatible with most major computer systems. The MINSIM Program The main objective of any freeenterprise mining venture is to make a profit. To determine profitability of a given project, alternate methods of operating and financing must be evaluated. That is the purpose of MINSIM. While there are a number of methods of evaluating the economic profitability of a mining project, MINSIM uses the Discounted Cash Flow Rate of Return (DCFROR) method as its major criterion because DCFROR considers the time value of money and gives the truest measure of profitability. One disadvantage is that the calculations are deposit oriented. In other words, MINSIM analyzes only those costs and parameters specific to the deposit. It cannot be used to evaluate the overall corporate picture. The program is designed to simultaneously handle five different commodities and a leach operation for any type of mining project. For example, analysis of a coal project would include only one commodity-coal at the mine mouth. Analysis of a copper operation might include numerous commodities-from the raw material to the refined product. Input MINSIM considers capital investment-recoverable exploration, acquisition, and development costs; depreciable capital investments such as mine plant and equipment, mill plant and equipment, and infrastructure costs; all general and commodity specific operating costs; and the cost of alternate financing methods. The program has the capacity to incorporate different types of depletion allowances, numerous commodity-dependent severance taxes, variations of property taxes, and many methods for calculating state or provincial taxes. There are even many different ways to calculate federal and national taxes. The capacity to handle tax variations is generated from an internal subroutine in the program called the "open file." The user can reconstruct, customize, or evaluate any kind of tax desired. Outputs Given this kind of capacity for numerous input parameters, MINSIM is capable of the follow¬ing major outputs: