Two Dimensional Numerical Simulation of Fault Reactivation and Induced Seismicity

Geomechanical modelling of fault stability is an important part of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) research program to ensure its viability and long-term safety. Storage of CO2 in deep subsurface reservoirs requires estimates of sustainable fluid pressures that will not induce fracturing or fault reactivation which could cause fault slip. More importantly, fault slip gives rise to seismic waves, which inflict severe damage to the cap rock of the reservoirs and may result in leakage pathways for the buoyant plume and thus compromise the integrity of seal formations. In this study, we generated a numerical model tuned towards conditions usually encountered in the Shenhua CCS demonstration project in Ordos basin. In particular, with the purpose of evaluating the sensitivity of the parameters as well as their relationships with the moment magnitude of the seismicity, a variance-based sensitivity analysis was adopted for importance ranking of the uncertain input parameters of the given model. However, such flow models could involve one or several spatial inputs, for instance, fault dip, distance between fault and the injection well, friction angle of fault, permeability of fault, Young's Modulus of fault, injecting pore pressure and the stress field. Studying the sensitivity to each of these spatial inputs motivated the present work. The results led to the following conclusions: fault depth and fault dip significantly affect the behavior of the fault and the fault slip becomes violent with the fault depth increasing and fault dip decreasing. Furthermore, the results indicate that slip time increases with the fault dip decreasing and decreases with permeability of fault increasing. In addition, the calculation of seismic moment and moment magnitude of an earthquake demonstrates that it rises significantly with the decrease of fault dip and the increase of fault depth, and it decreases with the rising stress field. The results show that variations of the only controllable parameter injection pressure do not show great influence to the fault behavior compared with other geological factors, which imply site selection is extremely important for the CCS projects.