Turning the tables-an interactive approach to the traditional estimation of reserves

This paper reviews some of the traditional methods of reserves estimation based on lognormal distribution with or without an additive constant. In the rush to computerize mine planning and grade control generaly, proven estimation methods, such as Sichel's t, seem to have been overlooked. By use of a personal microcomputer, the traditional methods were investigated thoroughly, the results being tested against existing tables and figures. The fitting of a lognormal distribution, including estimation of the additive constant, is discussed, and the calculation of Sichel's t estimator and its associated confidence limits is described in detail. Payability calculations for a lognormal distribution are also covered briefly. The advantages of personal computers, particularly speed and ease of use, are emphasized. This low-cost approach permits detailed investigation of some of the assumptions and approximations inherent in the established methods of calculation. Several disturbing discrepancies are revealed in various factors, and some generalized statements made by previous authors are found to be over-simplistic. Full details are given of acceptable approximations and computer algorithms, and concern is expressed over the possible loss of proven methods under the welter of new, sophisticated computer software.