Thirty Years of Turbulent Change in the Gold Industry

"The last thirty years have seen enormous changes in all aspects of the gold industry, from the technologies of mining and extracting gold to the role it has played in the fiscal policies of nations. In this time, the market price of gold has increased ten fold and mine production has more than doubled. However, the cost of mining and extracting gold has also increased exponentially, and the industry has struggled with declining ore grades and increasingly refractory ore bodies.With the major economic powers of the world shrugging off the uncertainties of the post cold war era and moving into a period of unprecedented political stability, economic growth and low inflation, gold is also losing its lustre as a hedge against inflation and a backing for national currencies. Consequently, countries that had accumulated and hoarded gold for decades are now disposing of these non-performing assets, resulting in major swings in supply of the metal. Fortunately, this has coincided with the end of communism in many parts of the world and a tentative move to free market economies in most of the developing nations. As a result, people are becoming wealthier, and this is creating more demand for gold, principally in the form of jewelry.On balance, the shift in the role of gold, from one in which a significant portion of new gold production lay dormant in bank vaults as insurance against political or fiscal instability, to one in which most new gold is now freely traded as an industrial commodity, responding to normal market forces of supply and demand, has had a negative impact on the price of gold over the last fifteen years. In that time, the gold price has declined from a peak of $850/oz in 1980 to an average price of about $400 through the rest of the l 980's, to a price of -$320/oz today (1997). In large measure, this has been due to the enormous inventory of gold metal that was held by central government banks in vaults around the world, and which has been dumped on the market as soon as the price has started to trend upwards. Even today, after ten years of fairly steady selling by central banks, about 3 0, 000 tons of gold (or -8 years' supply at the present rate of consumption) is still retained in vaults (Murray et al., 1997).The downward pressure on the price of gold has created exciting opportunities for the development and implementation of new technology. Increasing the efficiency of gold recovery from more and more refractory ore bodies, whilst at the same time lowering production costs, have become critical to survival in this industry. These challenges have been met by the development and implementation of new technologies such as heap leaching, carbon in pulp, resin in pulp and the sulphide ore pre-treatment process of pressure leaching, bacterial leaching and fluid bed roasting. For an industry that saw very little technological change in the first seventy years of the twentieth century, the pace of change over the last thirty years must have seemed bewildering at times."