The Future of Gold

For the period January 1st, 1942, to January 1st, 1946, the American Bureau of Metal Statistics records the gold production of the world as 118,788,000 fine ounces. If we include 1946 at the same rate as 1945 (26,- 590,000), we arrive at a total of 145,378,000 fine ounces in the past five years . Included in these figures are estimates of Russian output at 4,000,000 ounces per annum for the five years, and 1,300,000 ounces per annum for Korea and Japan. The remaining 120,000,000 ounces represent the aggregate production from official reports of the other gold producing areas of the world, with the exception of the 1946 figures, as noted above. At $35.00 per fine ounce, this represents $5,188,230,000. According to the reports of the Federal Reserve System of the United States, on December 31st, 1941, the monetary gold reserves of the United States were $22,736,- 600,000 (at $35.00 per fine ounce) , while on October 31st, 1946 (latest available) , they had fallen to $20,402,000,000, a decline of $2,334,600,000. Adding this decline to the value of the new production for the five years, we have a total of $7,522,830,000, which has been absorbed by the rest of the world since Pearl Harbour, a rate of absorption of over $1,500,000,000 per annum. This has taken place at a rime when the advocates of purely managed currencies had convinced many people that gold performed no really essential function in the world's economy, and that we could get along perfectly well without it. It was pointed out that gold could not be eaten, it could not clothe our nakedness, it could not shelter us from storms, and, therefore, it was a non-essential, even though it could be used to settle international balances of trade. Apparently, the world as a whole still regards it as preferable to the paper promises of governments, however sound, relatively, they may appear. Actually, we have no way of measuring the true strength of this feeling, because the principal governments of the world have made it legally impossible for their citizens to own gold, except in the form of ornaments.