Subsidence Prediction from the Beginning - Collie Coal Basin(Western Australia)

Surface subsidence resulting from "total extraction" of coal in the Collie Basin first occured in 1987 when Western Collieries Ltd trialled the Wongawilli mining method. Because very little quantitative subsidence data existed for the weak, Permian sediments, a research program was set up prior to the extraction of the first panel. The objective of the study was to be able to predict subsidence characteristics and effects prior to mining future total extraction panels. Attempts at predicting subsidence began using existing subsidence models from other coal mining regions, however, as more site information became available, it became clear that it was necessary to develop a separate, she specific predictive model for the Collie Coal Basin. Analysis of extensive field monitoring data for both surface and subsurface subsidence has produced a series of empirical models which can predict the shape of surface subsidence troughs and corresponding tilts, and strains for rectangular panels and describe the sequences of ground movement from the mine roof through to the ground surface.