Speculation And The Fundamentals In The Determination Of Aluminium Prices

I. Introduction The free market cash price of aluminium in the third quarter of 1985 is approximately $1000/tonne, well below the short as well as the long run marginal costs of production. The current disparity between marginal costs and price, as well as the pattern of prices since their high level in 1980, has led many economists to question whether prices are governed by the 'fundamentals'. Prices, some would argue, are the result of speculation; and speculation is irrational, little influenced by the fundamentals of the industry. The object of this paper is first to examine the relation between the fundamentals and price. A number of simple models are formulated and some empirical evidence is given to show that prices are not very different from costs. There are good reasons why costs and prices have fallen since 1980. Second, the connection is drawn between the fundamentals and speculation. To do this the concept of 'rational expectations' is defined and applied to a model of the aluminium industry. Then speculation is introduced into the model and the characteristics of the solution are examined. The object is to discover the new factors that determine prices and the basic change in the nature of the solution that is caused by speculation. 2. Prices and the Simple Supply-Demand Model Consider a simple model of the aluminium industry. Demand, D, is determined by economic activity, A, given exogenously, and inversely by the price, P. Supply, Q, is determined by the inverse of the rnarginal cost curve, and so varies inversely with exogenous factor costs, C, and directly with price. Price is determined by the equality of supply and demand. Given the equilibrium level of demand, price in this model is equal to the rnarginal cost of producing the required level of demand, P = MC (Dl. Algebraically, [ ] How well does this simple model explain the change in prices during the last five years? Table I shows the LME cash price and the estimated marginal cost of producing consumption during the second quarters of 1980 through 1985. The figures in the table show that price and the marginal cost of supplying demand both fell between 1980 and 1982, rose in 1983 and by 1985 had fallen again. Only in 1984 is the direction of change different. And during the 1980 to 1985 period, marginal costs fell by approximately $560/tonne while the LME cash price fell by $678/tonne. There is a correspondence between the fundamentals of cost and price over most of the individual years and the period as a whole.