Special Report : Coping with the Recession - The Current Downturn's Imapct on the Mining Industry

The recession that began in late 1980 has proved to be not only prolonged and severe, but in certain ways unique in its effect on the mineral industries among the periods of economic slowdown experienced in the Western world since the end of World War II. This time almost all minerals have been affected. In previous business turndowns, by contrast, some mineral sectors have with-stood economic adversity well. They experienced little or no adverse effect-thanks either to a strong secular expansion in the markets for their particular product or to specific factors that caused demand to be well maintained. For example, aluminum, molybdenum, and nickel are three metals that enjoyed extraordinary growth in applications during the years 1946-1973. These metals were little affected during the recessions that occurred in that era. Similarly, coal did not suffer a pronounced drop in sales in the 1974-75 turndown because, with the price of oil rising sharply, a switch away from oil and back to coal was clearly indicated for some energy-intensive applications. Oil itself was largely impervious to the ups and downs of the business cycle until very recently. And the precious metals, gold and silver, have often been regarded as benefiting from reduced economic activity because labor becomes more available, productivity rises, and operating costs diminish. In the current recession, however, no major mineral has escaped the broad trend. The secular growth factors that were previously so evident for aluminum, molybdenum, and nickel have disappeared, at least temporarily. The stable pricing behavior that previously characterized all three of these commodities has been replaced by extreme price weakness and apparent inability of the major producers to continue their roles as market leaders. Coal and oil both have suffered from a sharp drop in energy requirements. There are those who now anticipate a collapse of the market control over oil prices so clearly exercised by OPEC since 1973. If oil prices are no longer effectively controlled by the governments of the exporting countries, then coal prices are also certain to be affected. And the combination of high interest rates, tight money, and a change in public perceptions of precious metals put the skid under gold and silver quotations in 1981 and early 1982. Although inflation has been viewed as the scourge of most Western countries ever since the oil crises of 1973-74, prices-in constant dollars-of most minerals have not risen. On the contrary, with the exception of the precious metals and oil, for most minerals the prices that prevailed at the end of 1982 were close to the levels of the Great Depression of the 1930s in constant dollar terms. Table 1 compares prices for copper, lead, zinc, and aluminum at the end of 1982 with the average prices in 1934, stated in constant 1967 dollars. This emphasis on prices for mineral commodities reflects the fact that profits of mining enterprises vary directly with the level of prices. Manufacturing and retailing enterprises march to a different tune. They establish sales prices based on costs. Their profits tend to vary with volume. Commodities are for all practical purposes fungible, that is the advantages of known brands in marketing manufactured goods have little application in a commodity market. Thus the individual seller of minerals is unable to establish his sales prices. Except where a monopoly is present, he must sell at the going market. His option is to abstain from selling if he finds the price unremunerative. In past recessions, some mineral producers chose to do precisely that-either accumulating a substantial share of their output in inventory or, in prolonged downturns, abstaining from production. During the current recession, however, private-sector mining companies did not have the option of accumulating inventories to any great extent. Capital costs for new mineral projects or for expansion of existing facilities have escalated at an alarming rate since the early 1970s. Added to this has been the heavy cost of installing pollution control or safety equipment to comply with the regulations adopted in most industrialized countries (and particularly the United States) since 1968. The consequence has been that the financial position of most major mineral enterprises in mid-1980 was already strained. To finance increased inventories meant incurring additional funded debt at high interest costs, thus impairing the concern's credit rating. Management Choices Private-sector managements have had to face up to the alternative of either continuing to produce at an unchanged rate and marketing output at unremunerative prices or reducing output. The latter has meant either operating at a curtailed rate, with con-