Simulation of operating risk in mine feasibility studies - SME Transactions 2011

Risk assessment is an essential component of mine feasibility studies. However, it is often challenging to identify the appropriate analysis and derive the required input data. The uniqueness of a mining project and the associated technical issues require customization of the risk assessment approach to meet both requirements and characteristics. The uncertainty driving the operating risk in mine feasibility studies and its assessment through Monte Carlo simulation as a component of a cash flow analysis are discussed in this paper. The paper introduces the use of the analytic hierarchy process for derivation of qualitative input and conducts quantification of the three main sources of operating performance delays, equipment, ground and schedule problems, in a cash flow simulation. A methodology for the assessment of operating risk in mine feasibility studies is presented.