Risk Management in Tunneling: A Review of Current Practices and Needs for Future Development from the Designer’s Perspective

"Risk management in tunneling is more important today than it was a few years ago, considering increasing demands for safety and environmental and socio-economic sustainability, which are now required by citizens, owners, lenders, and insurers. Moreover, our current risk management philosophy should not only address risk avoidance and mitigation, but should also be used as a means of value creation, benefiting the overall project. Given the strategic implications of risk management, the authors intend to present, in this paper, a comprehensive overview of references and experiences from current practice—e.g., what is missing or weak, as well as possible or necessary developments that can have a key role in implementing effective risk management, particularly for a project’s design and construction phases. Therefore, as God has set some things in broad daylight; as he has given us some certain knowledge, though limited to a few things so, in the greatest part of our concernments, he has afforded us only the twilight, as I may so say, of probability (John Locke) PREFACE Many large-scale engineering and construction projects suffer millions of dollars in cost overruns, delays in design and construction, and operability troubles once finally completed (Edward W. Merrow, 2011). The undesired effects of these problems can become disastrous for large-scale megaprojects (those that typically cost US$1 billion or more), particularly considering that these are increasingly used as the preferred delivery model for infrastructure (Bent Flyvbjerg, 2014), often in public-private partnerships (PPPs). McKinsey G.I. (2015) has estimated that bridges and tunnels average 35% in cost overruns, and roads 20%. Some of the values published by Flyvbjerg (ibidem, 2014) for projects with relevant underground elements are the highest, with cost overruns from 60% to 300%. The analysis of 32 other case histories (from 1994 to 2010) given by Hartmut, R. (2011, IMIA Annual Conference, Amsterdam) indicates an average increase of costs around $55 million, with a 20-month average delay."