Risk Management – Correlation and Dependencies for Planning, Design, and Construction

"SUMMARY While the basic elements of risk management, including probability, consequences, risk registers, mitigation measures, etc., are now well understood, the process to include correlation, dependencies and linkage of risks and risk scenarios is less well defined and not well understood. To perform accurate and complete risk analysis and risk management, it is necessary to include correlation, dependencies and linkage between risk events, as well as risks that may occur multiple times. In this way, owners and contractors can more accurately determine risk-based costs, risk impacts and risk mitigation strategies. This paper will outline methods to deal with correlation, dependencies and linkage and will consider risks that may occur multiple times. Practical result comparisons – with or without these elements – will be presented. INTRODUCTION We believe the reader is familiar with basic concepts of risk, risk management and mitigation and the use of probabilistic cost-risk processes versus deterministic ones (Reilly et al. 2015; Sander et al. 2015). The probabilistic approach, compared to the simpler and more common deterministic approach (unit prices times unit costs plus a contingency), offers more useful information with respect to the range of probable cost as well as cost “drivers” and better quantifies the effects of risks, opportunities and variability – which improves understanding, leading to a better potential for profit (or loss) for contractors and added value for owners. In this context, a valid and sufficient quantification of correlation, dependencies and linkage of risk events, plus the impact of risks that may occur multiple times, is essential. Components of Cost Estimates – Base Cost, Risks and Other Uncertainties The components of cost that need to be correctly addressed in an estimate include (Moergeli et al. 2015): •,Base costs – the costs that will result if “all goes according to plan” (Reilly 2004) •,Risk costs – the resulting costs of threat and opportunity events, if they should occur •,Escalation costs – costs resulting from normally expected inflation with variability •,Other uncertain costs – costs that result from other events, normally external to the project team’s control, which may include unanticipated events, politically related changes and “black swan” events (Talib 2007)"