Risk Analysis in Open Pit Mine Design and Planning Using Conditional Simulation Techniques

The paper show how the inclusion of the uncertainty of the geology of the orebody into the mine planning and design process can be of great help, for the mine planner, in both assessing and quantifying the existing risk in the key project indicators such as DCF, and ore tonnage. This is achieved by using conditional simulation and Monte Carlo techniques which provide equally probable models of the original orebody model of the deposit. In this fashion, it is possible to assess the sensitivity of the pit design and related long-term production scheduling (cutbacks) to grade uncertainty.