Risk analysis for evaluation of mine impounded water

"Since 1994 the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) has used risk analysis to evaluate dams. Risk considers both the likelihood of failure and the expected consequences should failure occur. Risk analysis relies on the detailed formulation and critical analysis of all possible potential failure modes. Potential failure modes are formulated by describing the sequence of events that must occur to result in failure, where failure is defined as the uncontrolled release of the impounded reservoir. Failure occurs in response to loadings such as water seepage through a dam (static forces), shaking from an earthquake (dynamic forces), sudden flood inflows (hydrologic forces), or accidental overfilling (operational errors). Reclamation has, to a limited extent, applied risk analysis to inactive and abandoned mines to evaluate tailings dams, pit lakes and flooded underground mines. Case histories of potential failure mode analysis, as applied to mine impounded water, illustrate what critical technical information is needed to determine if failure is likely, what the consequences of failure are likely to be, and what are the highest risks that should be addressed first.IntroductionImpounded water and high water content wastes at mining and industrial processing sites are potential threats to public safety and the environment. Recent failures such as the TVA Kingston flyash impoundment failure in Tennessee in 2008 (4.1 million m3 or 5.4 million cu yd) release, the Mt. Poly Tailings Dam failure in British Columbia in 2014 (4.4 million m3 or 5.8 million cu yd) release, and the Samarco Fundao Tailings Dam failure in Brazil in 2015 (59 millon m3 or 78 million cu yd) release have renewed attention to this issue. Potential risks from impounded water at mining and industrial sites originate not only from tailing dams, but also from water in process ponds and conveyance pipelines, sediment retention dams, water retention dams, mine pit lakes and flooded underground mine workings.Conventional water retaining dams also have a record of failure. Notable examples of failure include Vajont Dam in Italy in 1963 (2,600 lives lost), Banqiao and Shimantan Dams in China in 1975 (171,000 lives lost), and Machhu-II Dam in India (10,000 lives lost). After the 1976 Teton Dam failure in Idaho, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) established a Dam Safety Program. By 1984, the agency developed and began using risk analysis methods. BOR operates and maintains an inventory of hundreds of aging dams which were designed and constructed over a period of 100 years. Many of these facilities were designed and constructed prior to the development and adaptation of modern soil mechanics in dam engineering. Diligent observational monitoring, detailed site investigations and the application of risk evaluation to the BOR dam inventory has identified many deficiencies resulting in significant demands on available funding for remediation efforts. The application of risk analysis has allowed the agency to rank sites by risk. By giving priority of remedial efforts to high-risk sites, significant improvements to dam safety have been achieved."