Risk analysis design applications in mining geomechanics

Procedures are described for the application of risk analysis or probabilistic methods to mining geomechanics. The methods are widely applicable to existing mine design models. Detailed examples are given of plane slope failure and of pillar design based on displacement-discontinuity stress modelling and empirical strength assessment. The modelling techniques assessed are the Latin hypercube sampling method, incorporated in a spreadsheet environment, and the general point estimate method (GPEM), programmed in TurboBasic. An example GPEM program listing is included. Both methods are very convenient to use. Probabilistic acceptance criteria for slope stability after Priest and Brown are examined and alternatives are proposed where output distributions of factor of safety are approximately normal or lognormal and output distributions of safety margin are normal. The reliability index is included as a useful measure of variability with proposed acceptance criteria.