RI 7547 Production Decline Curves Using Data From California Oilfields

The results of two separate but related studies are given. In the first study, four equations were tested; the object was to determine which would produce a curve that would best fit data points that represent a trend of declining oil production in 90 California fields. Two conventional equations (the Arps and semilog) and two novel equations (extreme-c and double semilog) were tested. The curves were first fitted to the initial 9 years of the 15-year production data and then extrapolated for 6 years to determine how well the extrapolated curve would fit the data points. The generated curves were also extrapolated beyond the last data point to predict rates of future production. The results of the first study showed that no equation was clearly superior to the others in all respects. The semilog equation resulted in the best fit to production data for the first 9 years, but the Arps and extreme-c equations produced a better fit for the extrapolated data for the period of 9 to 15 years. The Arps and extreme-c also gave more realistic production rates when extended to the point where cumulative production equaled reserves. A second study was made to determine if the least-squares technique applied to the Arps equation would result in more accurate extrapolations. The merits of the logarithmic and the nonlogarithmic forms of the Arps hyperbolic equation were also tested. For the logarithmic expression, it was found that one of the constants of the Arps equation reached a value so small or so large that the equation was not applicable to the data of 40 of the 90 California fields. The nonlogarithmic form of the Arps equation was applicable to neither the same 40 fields nor to a few additional ones. When the data and the Arps equation were compatible, the use of the least-squares technique as compared with other methods improved the extrapolation accuracy somewhat.