Qualitative Environmental Risk Assessment For Mine Development

It can systematically assess if the control and management systems designed for protection of sensitive ecosystems are adequate. The results of the assessment can help to identify key elements in the project that pose higher risks due to uncertainties in design. These assessments can then be used to make recommendations to further manage and reduce risks as the project is developed. QUALITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT The general principles of a risk assessment are well summarized by Kaplan and Garrick (1981): "In analyzing risk we are attempting to envision how the future will turn out if we undertake a certain course of action (or inaction)." Fundamentally, therefore a risk analysis consists of an answer to the following three questions: What can happen? (i.e. what can go wrong?) How likely is it that that will happen? If it does happen what are the consequences?" Risk assessments can be performed using various levels of sophistication depending on the amount and accuracy of data available. A qualitative risk assessment uses descriptors throughout to express the level of risk. The definitions of the descriptors are presented in terms of the magnitude or concentration of contaminants. The results of a qualitative risk assessment can be used to: a)Document the evaluation and decisionmaking process. Although differences of opinion may exist about the definitions of the descriptors, the process is well-documented; b)Express the relative risk associated with specific activities or design elements; and, c)Select those failure modes or release mechanisms that may result in significant risks. These mechanisms can then be further developed in quantitative risk assessments. A qualitative risk assessment can be performed in a systematic approach using four steps (Van Zyl, 1987): A qualitative environmental risk assessment can be used to describe the risks associated with the development of a new mine and to make an evaluation of the adequacy of its design for environmental protection. The relative magnitude of risk associated with selected failure modes and exposure/consequence scenario assessments is the final result of a qualitative risk assessment. These failure modes are based on site specific areas and components, and mining and construction phases. The four steps of a risk assessment (hazard assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk characterization) are used in the development of a qualitative risk assessment. Relative magnitudes (using a five point scale of negligible to high) for each step, can be quantified in a qualitative risk assessment. Development of the descriptors for the relative magnitudes in each step is a very important part of a qualitative risk assessment. The success of a qualitative risk assessment depends on the adequacy of the information base and the subjective judgements made in each step. The quality of the risk assessment is, therefore, dependent on the experience of the assessors. A mining project in a sensitive coastal environment is presented as an example to demonstrate the application of a qualitative risk assessment. INTRODUCTION Environmental impacts from mining operations have been a significant factor in the last century. This was especially the case prior to the development of a better understanding of environmental processes and the potential impacts of acid rock drainage (ARD), and associated heavy metals, or the uncontrolled disposal of tailings and waste rock (Smith, 1987). Much care has been exercised over the last two decades in designing and operating mines to limit the environmental impacts as far as possible. All new mines are specifically designed with mitigative methods to manage such potential environmental impacts. Attention is directed to ARD impacts, safe disposal of mine waste rock and tailings, transportation and storage of chemicals and fuels, and final reclamation. A qualitative risk assessment can be used to address all project systems and activities that may potentially pose a risk to the environment.