Project Execution & Cost Escalation in the Mining Industry

"Since about 2002 there has been significant capital cost escalation, not inflation, in the mining industry causing turmoil for successful project completion. Project capital costs have more than doubled and some cases tripled in this time period. This has rendered many projects to be economically challenged and in some cases not viable. In addition higher than expected operating costs have further adversely affected project metrics such as NPV and IRR. Capital cost increases for projects have been widely reported globally. This current paper reviews three items. Firstly, why such capital increases and the various components that make up capital estimates. Secondly, it looks at reasons why preliminary estimates, for example at scoping and pre-feasibility level, have been lower than the ultimate constructed costs. Such increases and differences in estimates have caused major problems for mine builders and have led to a general nervousness on the part of those providing project finance. Thirdly, what discipline is needed in project execution in an attempt to mitigate such capital increases. The paper will hopefully give a better understanding of the various issues and factors involved for those in the mining industry.INTRODUCTION The years 2012 and 2013 were a turbulent time for the mining industry. The European economic crisis, politics, metal price volatility and a wave of changes of CEO´s in some of the major mining companies all contributed to a challenging couple of years. Two issues stood out. First, the huge increases reported in the capital costs of projects, where increases of 100% - 300% were not uncommon and in some cases exceeded that during the first decade of the 21st century. Second, company write downs related to takeovers during the boom and the stabilization/correction in commodity prices. These have led to great uncertainty, made it difficult (or impossible) to raise project financing costs, contributed to the changes at CEO level and placed many projects either on hold or cancelled altogether. It is commonplace now to read of companies talking of reduced capital expenditure and making a complete review of their projects and operations to contain costs."