Production - Foreign - Russian Oil Fields in 1929-1930 (With Discussion)

The oil industry in the Soviet Union closed the 1929-1930 operating year fulfilling its assigned program. During this period of time, however, no basic improvements were noted within the industry. A careful study of the conditions indicates that disorganization in most branches increased continually; that supply and transportation problems are approaching a state of breakdown; that labor problems become increasingly difficult and that the estimates for 1931-1933 period are too large. The production of all Russian fields increased by 27,200,000 bbl., as compared with the 1928-1929 operating year, while the next year's program anticipates a further increase of 46,000,000 bbl., and the 1933 plans call for an amazing total of 330,000,000 bbl., or over 150 per cent, more than the production of the operating year that has just closed. Table 1 shows petroleum production in Russia by individual areas and fields from 1916, and furnishes estimates for the three coming years, which constitute the balance of the Five-year plan. A brief analysis of Table 1 will show that the Soviet Planning Commission anticipates that the fully developed fields of the Apsheron-Baku will double their production by 1933, .as compared with 1929-1930, and that the old Grozny fields, which are already showing a tendency to decline, will increase their output from 44,110,000 bbl. in 1929-1930 to 68,000,000 bbl. in 1933. Furthermore, in 1933 new fields are slated to produce not less than 100,000,000 bbl., a figure which even under most favorable conditions in Russia would be hard to achieve. Of course, Russia could develop such production, because the country is not lacking in the prospective reserves, but the transportation in the country today (as in the past.) is in such poor shape that neither the supply of a gigantic oil industry nor the movement of its products is within the realm of possibility. Table 1 shows the future estimated crude oil production as required by the Five-year plan, and also as reasonably estimated by the author, taking into account natural declines in old fields, slow development of new areas and the deficiency of the transport. While in the 1929-1930 operating year only two major fields underproduced (Surakany and Maikop) and the plan was fulfilled to the extent of 97.4 per cent., the production of the last three months of 1930 ("Shock Quarter") indicated