Production - Foreign - An Estimate of the World’s Proven Oil Reserves

It has been repeatedly questioned whether estimates of oil reserves are of any practical value, as the greater number of such calculations previously made have subsequently been proved to be grossly inaccurate. But even admitting partial justification for such statements, it must be evident that some idea, however approximate, of the available reserves of essential minerals is of vital importance in mapping their development and the future trend of the related industries, particularly if it is kept constantly in mind that these estimates—which are never intended as a final word—must be continually subject to revision in accordance with the changes in their component factors. The value of these estimates, therefore, hinges on the clear understanding that they can only apply within the limited time when the controlling factors remain unchanged. It should be understood, however, that while estimates of possible and probable oil deposits are as a rule but idle conjectures, appraisals of proven oil reserves can undoubtedly be made with an ever-increasing degree of accuracy. And it is with this in mind that in the present study the endeavor has been to estimate only the world's proven oil reserves—the oil that yet remains underground in the producing fields—and their logical extensions, and to leave out of consideration the questionable volume of the probable and possible oil reserves. In Table 1 the countries at present producing oil in commercial quantities are listed in the order of the magnitude of their proven reserves. As shown in the table, the world's proven oil reserves are estimated at over 24 billion barrels, while the total production to the end of 1932 aggregates nearly 23 billions. Past production represents, therefore, 48 per cent, and proven reserves approximately 52 per cent of the total. About 61 per cent of the reserves are located in the American continent and close to 33 per cent in the Near East fields of Russia, Iraq and Persia. It is interesting to note that the proven reserves in the important producing regions almost equal if not exceed their production to date. The Mexican fields are a remarkable exception in this respect since they produced over 135 billion barrels and have proven reserves estimated at only 300 million barrels.