Process Control... And Where Are We Going?

"When I was first asked to prepare this paper and presentation in late June, I thought it might be fun to ""step back and paint the bigger picture."" Having attempted to do this, fun is not the first descriptor that now comes to mind, and speaking dyslexically, I've had 'nuf.'Unlike Nostradamus, or even Orwell, I've discovered that I'm ""clairvoyantly challenged"" and not even the psychic hot-line was of much help, at least with respect to process control! I am somewhat comfortable speculating on evolutionary change, but the radical developments that will arise from revolutionary changes are well beyond my mortal capabilities. Even with evolutionary change, I'm reminded of the lessons of time series analysis which show the prediction error to grow exponentially as the horizon moves into the future. As Macluhan is reported to have said: ""Predicting the future based on the past is a little like driving your car while looking in the rearview mirror!""Having honestly presented my qualifications, allow me to try to look at process control and to offer some conjecture on where we're probably headed. In the end, it is said that: ""The plant of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment.1""IntroductionA little less than a decade ago Andy Mular and I co-edited a monograph entitled ""A Practical Guide to Process Control in the Minerals Industry."" The work was commissioned by the senior management of a consortium of Canadian mining companies, since it was widely perceived that control was an area of great economic potential, but one that had not been effectively tapped. The concern was that if the industry could not soon deliver on the ""potential"", the term may well have appeared in the epitaph of what was, to these men, a very attractive investment opportunity. I think it is fair to say that over the past few years process control has clearly established itself as an essential technology in plant operation and optimization. That isn't to say that we get it all-right, all-the-time, but, the circumstances are much different than they were. In the eyes of many, process control has attained the distinction of being considered a mature technology, even though there are still countless avenues for exploration."