Probabilistic And Computer Methodologies Used By The U. S. Geological Survey For Geological Estimates Of Undiscovered Oil And Gas Resources In The United States

INTRODUCTION In September 1974 the Resource Appraisal Group of the Branch of Oil and Gas Resources, U. S. Geological Survey, was asked to aid the Federal Energy Administration (FEA) in its legal responsibility to generate by June 1975 an independent appraisal of the undiscovered oil and gas resources of the United States, both onshore and offshore. As a result, the Resource Appraisal Group accelerated its ongoing efforts to develop sound appraisal methods and procedures that would permit the systematic collection and evaluation of basic data from petroleum provinces throughout the Nation. The results of this independent appraisal of the Nation's conventional oil and natural gas resources were published by the U. S. Geological Survey as Circular 725, June 1975 (1). The estimates in this report of undiscovered recoverable oil and gas resources for the United States were made: (1) by carefully re- viewing a large amount of geological and geophysical information gathered on more than 100 different provinces by over 70 geologists within the Survey; (2) by applying a variety of resource appraisal techniques to each potential petroleum province; and (3) by application of subjective probability procedures to group appraisals for each petroleum province. These methods provide a range of estimates which are summarized in terms of low, high and mean values for the various provinces and groups of provinces, or regions. The basic data and procedures used are documented and are being incorporated into a dynamic, data- intensive system that can be upgraded, updated and reevaluated periodically. These data are open to public inspection. In this study, the primary emphasis was placed on conventional crude oil and natural gas in the onshore provinces and the provinces on the continental shelf out to water depths of 200 metres; estimates