Predicted Risks versus Actual Outcomes - Four Recent U.S. Rock Tunnel Projects

"Performing risk analyses on tunnel projects has become common place and on many projects it is required from an owner or regulatory perspective. After the project is planned, designed and constructed, the data concerning identified risks, assumptions, costs, probabilities and mitigations is generally long forgotten and buried in some file somewhere. A study was performed comparing predicted risks versus actual events on four recently constructed rock tunnel projects in New York, Ohio, Georgia and California. Probabilities and costs for selectively common risks on tunnel projects have been studied and re-evaluated. Conclusions are presented that can guide future projects and the veracity of the tunnel risk analyses performed. INTRODUCTION Tunneling is a risky business. More than ever, attention is being paid to the risks associated with tunneled facilities and implications on project or program cost and schedule. Questions about why tunneling projects notoriously exceed budget numbers abound. Evaluations in retrospect and going forward have focused on the wide breadth of inherent risks associated with tunneling. More and more, these risks are being identified, studied and managed to a higher degree. As more and more scrutiny pervades the industry, little value is being obtained and leveraged on future projects. The industry seems to be headed in a direction of making the same mistakes over and over. The notion of risk evaluation has been around for decades and received wide notoriety with the U.S. Space Program and ambitious projects in the energy industry such as hydropower and nuclear power in the 1960s and 1970s (Stewart and Melcher, 1997). This led to the evolution of tunnel risk analyses with more rigorous identification of the unique risks in tunneling projects impacting cost and schedule. As tunneling risks became more readily identified, more attention has been paid to the frequency and impact of the occurrences unique to tunneling (ITIG, 2012). Currently, few tunnel projects are being planned, designed or constructed without a formal risk register that identifies the risks, mitigates the risks and quantifies the probable impacts of risks that cannot be mitigated. In hind sight on many recent projects, events that brought projects to “its knees” were not addressed in risk assessments or were not dealt with to adequately mitigate the risk of these events."