Playing The Odds In Rock Mechanics

Rock engineering involves uncertainties which are large and difficult to quantify. The traditional design approach to these uncertain- ties has been conservatism, and has been satisfactory to the extent that failure rates are reasonably small. Yet, a price is paid for conservatism, and that price is not always small. Today, reliability and risk analysis are finding use in rock engineering. The introduction of such methods, usually under the name 'probabilistic design,' is controverisal. However, if the jingoism of both sizes in this controversy is stripped away, it appears that new insights about uncertainty in rock engineering are emerging.