Papers - - Petroleum Economics - Role of Drilling in the Functioning of Proration (With Discussion)

For the purposes of this analysis it is assumed that the petroleum industry has undergone a basic economic change whereby the degree of competition present in its operation is reduced by the collective control of production brought about by statme-directed proration. Formerly freely competitive in all its parts, the industry is now fully competitive only in its marketing, its manufacturing and transportation, its search for new oil supplies, its drilling operations (with some qualifications), and its capital movements. The practical problem before the industry in its new status is the maintenance of equilibrium, with planned control of crude-oil production (proration) substituted for competition and price as the regulatory mechanism at one point in the supply-demand system. It is further assumed that proration has become so firmly established in the legal and operating framework of the business that it may be looked upon as an institution. The purpose of this paper is to call attention to the effect of unregulated drilling upon the orderly functioning of proration. Economic Structure of Petroleum Industry The economic structure of the petroleum industry, under the current form of proration, may be visualized, in simplified form, as shown in Fig. 1. This diagram is designed to indicate the existing mechanism whereby supply and demand are equated. Demand is created largely by conditions external to the oil business, whereas supply is conditioned by a series of stages incidental to the discovery, development and production of a resource. The time elements involved in changes in demand and supply are of an entirely different order, the demand factor being much more flexible and "quicker" than the supply factors. It should be observed, also, that the position of price, formerly between "demand" and "supply," has been moved to a sidewise location where it still affects demand but influences current supply only through its bearing upon proration, drilling and search. Proration has been substituted for price as a throttle at the well head, but at this point only. The mechanism now works in this fashion: a declining price stimulates demand and the