Papers - - Petroleum Economics - Domestic Consumption of Motor Fuel (With Discussion)

One of the most interesting as well as important factors connected with the petroleum industry is the consumption of motor fuel. A few years ago we always spoke of "gasoline," but when natural gasoline and benzol became more important it seemed desirable to include all of these products in the petroleum statistics and so there was adopted the term "motor fuel," which embraces these three products in their entirety. Gasoline always included all stove and motor gasolines, high-grade naphthas, cleaning naphthas, solvents, varnishmakers' and painters' naphtha and gas-machine gasoline. "Motor fuel" includes all of these products also; therefore, technically the term "motor fuel" is incorrect, but as the total quantity of these non-motor naphthas is small their inclusion does not distort the results to any appreciable extent. When the Federal Oil Conservation Board appointed its first semiannual forecasting committee early in 1930 to project the demand for gasoline and crude oil into the year 1930, it was necessary for that committee to formulate a method of forecasting. It adopted the system in use by some of the oil companies at that time, of using automobiles and per-car consumption. Six months later the American Petroleum Institute also formed a committee for forecasting, which adopted the committee principle of asking each member to produce his own forecast of demand by any method he thought best and to give a full explanation to the committee. The result of the latter method was to get the benefit of as many different methods of forecasting demand as there were members. The writer does not recall any two members ever using exactly the same method. By studying the different forecasts and their methods, there evolved a composite opinion, which was presented to the industry as the committee's estimate. The same method has been followed by the American Petroleum Institute or Planning and Coordination Committee ever since.