Papers - - Estimation of Petroleum Reserves - Estimation of Developed Petroleum Reserves

The purposes of this statement are to define a problem that exists in regard to the estimation of developed petroleum reserves, to analyze the problem in an abstract manner, and to discuss it as an introduction to certain papers that follow. The problem is to devise and develop a suitable procedure to permit more accurate estimates of developed petroleum reserves. Part of the problem is to make such estimates available earlier in the life of any particular pool. The problem of securing more accurate estimates of developed petroleum reserves existed prior to curtailment of production. With curtailment, however, the problem became acute, some of the more prominent reasons being as follows: 1. The standard method of estimation depended on production-decline curves. This method is inapplicable while curtailment prevails and available methods arc insufficient. 2. The retarding influence imposed by wide open flow conditions upon overdevelopment is absent. Great losses of capital by overdevelopment can now occur before realization of the true situation occurs, or before effective steps can be taken to stop such wastage. This increases the need for early, accurate estimates. 3. Above-ground stocks have diminished and the equivalent of such supply tends more and more to be retained underground in the natural reservoirs. It becomes increasingly necessary to know accurately the amount of these stocks. To direct attention to an additional point of different nature: improved accuracy of reserve estimation can be obtained only by closer scrutiny of the factors that determine recovery. This examination and the resulting efforts to measure the effect of these factors in terms of ultimate recovery must tend to improve ultimate recovery. The statements regarding the acute nature of the problem also indicate to some extent the importance of the problem and the necessity of finding a solution. Developed reserves of the industry, and of individual opera-tors, are one of the great factors that properly should determine explora-