Owing to an Increasing Demand to Manage Risk and Maximize Cost-Effectiveness, Preference for Reliability-Based Design (RBD) Over Traditional Deterministic Design Procedures has increased for Deep Foundation Elements

In this study, factors affecting the reliability of augered cast-in-place (ACIP) piles under axial compression at the serviceability limit state are addressed using a simple probabilistic hyperbolic model and a database of load tests on ACIP piles in cohesion less soils. The aleatory and model uncertainty in a selected load-displacement model is statistically characterized, and is used to simulate representative random samples from the bivariate random vector of model parameters. A first-order reliability method (FORM) was used to determine the effect of sample size on the stability and uncertainty of the reliability index. Sample sizes greater than about 40 provided relatively consistent estimates of the reliability index; however, its uncertainty continued to decrease with increasing sample sizes. Additionally, the effect of slenderness ratio on the reliability of the serviceability limit state design was characterized and found to exhibit a significant effect on the probability of exceeding a specified displacement.