Operations Research - Statistical Analysis of Tunnel Supporting Loads

It can be concluded that rock mechanics instrumentation, geologic mapping, and operations research in combination will produce an accurate estimate of tunnel support requirements for establishing a steel-set load prediction model. This estimate can be used to increase safety and to reduce tunneling costs. Unnecessary supports can be eliminated; overloaded or insufficient supports can be replaced on a more scientific basis than previously possible. Only a limited number of measurements are required to develop a steel set load prediction model. The results of this study can be applied generally; but, every tunnel must be considered as a separate problem. The construction and geologic variables which were found to be significant in the prediction of rock loads in this tunnel were: steel section modulus, set blocking points, percentage of alteration, relative degree of faulting, relative water condition, distance to the nearest fault, and average joint spacing. INTRODUCTION A combined engineering geology and rock mechanics program was performed throughout the Straight Creek tunnel pilot bore in Colorado in order to develop a technique for estimation of steel tunnel support loads. The technique involves the construction of a statistical model from measured steel set loads, geologic and construction factors. The aim of the investigation was to produce a set of charts, based on these factors, which could be used by a trained man equipped with a hand lens and measuring tape, to specify a safe and economical steel size and set spacing. In order to be of practical value the measured parameters had to be rapidly measurable and capable of quantification. It was apparent from the beginning that quantitative values for many of the geologic factors would have to be arbitrary. It was impossible to ascertain in advance which of the readily determi-nable geologic and construction factors significantly affect steel set loading. As the investigation progressed the number of observations was systematically reduced in order to determine the minimum amount of data which would be necessary for a significant mathematical model. This paper presents an analysis of all the variables measured at each instrumented steel set. The statistical significance of the measured variables was determined. On the basis of this determination, a mathematical model was constructed and charts were prepared to select and space the steel tunnel supports at any given point in the tunnel. Once the effect of geologic and construction factors on set loading is sufficiently established, it is possible to exert close control over the selection of steel tunnel support size and spacing. The magnitude of this rock mechanics program can be appreciated when it is known that there were 44 instrumentation stations for which steel set loads were measured. For each of these sets there were three construction variables recorded, and nine geologic parameters determined (Table I). A rough approximation of the cost for both the collection and reduction of the data would be $50,000. This is in addition to the cost of geologic mapping.