Numerical Modelling and probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimation in Panel Caving mines, Case study at Reservas Norte, El Teniente mine - RASIM2022

Numerical modelling has been extensively used to estimate plastic displacement in faults and rock mass surrounding mine excavations. Particularly, for fault slip seismicity, modelled plastic displacement is usually utilized to estimate seismic potential, however these methods assume that all the displacement caused during an specific simulated excavation step, is released as a single event at each step. This representation corresponds to a conservative estimation since rock mass displacement does not occur as one single event but as an exponential distribution of many small displacements and a few large ones. When displacement is expressed as seismic magnitude, this exponential distribution is addressed as the Gutenberg Richter (GR) relationship. This paper present a method to decompose the results from numerical models into a distribution of seismic events The reconstruction of the GR relationship from modelling displacement permits not only a more realistic approximation of the expected maximum magnitudes but also provides a tool to develop a probabilistic estimation of the maximum possible magnitudes.