New York Paper - Time to Pay Out as a Basis for Valuation of Oil Properties (with Discussion)

Two methods for the rapid valuation of oil properties are in common use. The one best known and most widely used is the "per barrel" value, based on the present daily production of the well, without regard to its past performance or the history of the sand or pool from which it produces. The second method is the "time to pay out," or the lengt of time required for a well to place itself upon the credit side of the ledger, from which time the returns from its production (less the operating expenses) will be clear profit. The time basis for valuation is also commonly used in the appraisal of an undeveloped lease. In most oil fields, it is not thought good business to invest in production that will not pay out in at least 4 to 5 years. Nearly all buyers (except in certain regions of very persistent production like the deep-sand territory of the Appalachian field) expect wells to pay out in considerably less time than this. Like the barrel-per-day price, the time necessary for a well to pay out has been determined for each field, so that one frequently hears a field or district referred to as having a certain time to pay out. This is considered the norm for that field or district and the buyer and seller base their value, to greater or less extent, on their belief in the accuracy of this time. The writer long ago became convinced of the inaccuracy of the barrel-per-day method, except when greatly modified for local conditions, such as the age of the wells, their economic limit, operating conditions in the field, the future price of oil, and the persistence of the sand as a producer. When so modified, this method becomes more of an analytic or predicted probable-yield valuation. While the appraiser may not go through each step in a valuation based on future returnable revenue, his knowledge of the field and the local conditions surrounding his leases make it possible for him to estimate a fair sales value that, in many cases, will be a close approximation to the truth. This is quite different from she commonly understood barrel-per-day value, in that the conditions turrounding the sale of one lease or property at a fair market value may