Methodology to Simulate Triggered and Induced Seismic Activities on a Fault Plane - RASIM 2022

Induced seismicity is deeply related to various engineering projects entailing anthropogenic in-situ stress change in deep underground. Hence, there is a persistent demand for estimating and mitigating the risk. Significant efforts have been made in simulating induced seismicity with a variety of numerical simulation techniques; however, there are still discrepancies between characteristics of induced seismicity numerically simulated and observed in the field. One of such discrepancies is the simulation of triggered seismicity defined as seismic events caused by an infinitesimal amount of anthropogenic stress change, which is frequently observed in geological structures. The present study aims to develop a methodology to simulate triggered seismicity whilst reproducing a complex stress state in a fault zone. For the purpose, a discrete fracture network within a fault damage zone is first generated. Then, an equivalent continuum model, in which each zone has a different anisotropic compliance tensor, is constructed by employing the crack tensor theory. A fault core is simulated at the center of the model with interface elements. Using the equivalent continuum model, an initial stress condition is simulated with the boundary traction method, which results in a very complex stress state with stress anomalies due to the stiffness anisotropy and heterogeneity. Subsequently, the effective normal stress on the fault plane is decreased in a stepwise manner to induce slip. The result demonstrated that many seismic events are induced on the fault plane with a slight decrease in the confining stress, thus being regarded as triggered seismic event. Further analysis on this seismic activity shows that the magnitude of triggered seismic events is inconsistent with the amount of shear stress drop, implying that a relatively small triggered seismic event could produce a large stress drop, generating locally intense ground motions and thus inducing severe damage to the nearby rock mass.