Mathematical modelling of hazardous events

Occurrences of hazardous events (explosions of methane or coal dust, fires, outbursts) have been investigated and presented as a flow of events in time. It has been shown that flows of hazardous events in a long time span are homogeneous, stationary and no-after effect flows and can be considered as stationary Poisson flows. A flow of CH4/coal dust explosions that had happened for the last 27 years in Ukraine was analyzed. The explosions have been statistically processed. Practicability of agreement of statistical and theoretical data on mathematical expectation and mean square deviation of time interval between explosion and the explosion intensity has been stated. Probability of an emergency event in time is expressed through an exponential function, while mathematical expectation of an accident and mean square deviation of time interval between successive explosions are in inverse proportion to the accident intensity. Accident probability for practical purposes can be determined as a product of accident intensity by calculated time interval.