Market Analysis for Deep-Sea Mining Equipment

"Significant uncertainty is associated with predicting future trends in deep-sea mining projects, especially when attempting to assess markets for associated products such as ships and collectors. In order to help European Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to appraise the future market share of deep-sea mining equipment, a methodology was developed that allows to assess and predict equipment turnover. This study presents a market analysis, which evaluates the scale of the potential market for deep-sea mining equipment for seafloor manganese nodules (SMnN) and seafloor massive sulfides (SMS) based on six key drivers: (i) the worldwide deposit potential of SMnN and SMS deposits, (ii) the profitability of deep-sea mining projects, (iii) the metal market of seven associated metals (Cu, Zn, Au, Ag, Co, Ni, Mn), (iv) the current legal and environmental situation in the Area, (v) investment and maintenance costs, and (vi) a competitor analysis.Figures for the different key drivers are based on public reports and expert interviews. Large uncertainties as well as contrasting views and expectations resulted in different options (scenarios) for the future development of the deep-sea mining market. Several scenarios were developed and based on the future number of “mining projects” in the short-term (2022-2041) and the long-term (2042-2061). The number of such mining projects has been calculated based on the combined analysis of the different key drivers.In the scope of this study, the definition of a “mining project” is a deep-sea mining operation for SMnN or SMS lasting for 20 years. This operation includes the purchase of a set of deep-sea mining equipment consisting of a mining support vessel, a vertical transport system and the seafloor mining equipment, in line with other work within the EU FP7 project “Blue Mining” (GA No. 604500)."