Long Range Financial Risks: Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange And Costs

INTRODUCTION This discusses some of the economic risks and uncertainties which face any company investing in new mineral ventures. These differ mainly in degree rather than kind from other large capital intensive projects, except that economic risks are compounded with technical risks. Mines face a wide variety of physical risks, and in addition the ore reserves may not prove as ample, nor as amenable to treatment as the feasibility studies indicate. On the economic front, mineral projects are subject to risks of fluctuating prices and sales volumes, no matter where they are located, or how they are financed. Typically, they are heavy users of capital compared with their owners' internally generated funds. Long term debt of various types is still the favoured form of finance. A project's currencies and cost often differ from each other and from those of the parent company. Facing up to the various risks associated with fluctuating and uncertain revenues, interest rates and exchange rates are amongst the hardest tasks for natural resource companies. ATTITUDES TO THE MINING INDUSTRY Some have questioned whether the game itself is now worth playing. They have argued that the mining industry's mediocre rewards in the past decade have been insufficient, compared with the risks involved. They can see no prospect of dramatic improvement in the next decade. Demand is highly cyclical and tends to grow less rapidly than economic activity, as a whole. Barriers to entry are low in most mineral markets, but impediments to exit can be substantial. Exit is especially problematic in those minerals where there are large state shareholdings and/or where less developed countries are major producers. The consequence is claimed to be an endemic tendency to excess capacity, and prices barely adequate to cover marginal cash costs. Many of the petroleum companies that moved into mining with such high expectations in the late 1970s have retreated, often bearing the scars of heavy losses. Individual shareholders, taken collectively, place low valuations on their investments in mining companies. The price/earnings ratios of the major mineral producing companies are low compared with their historical averages and with those of other industries. PRICE: EARNINGS RATIOS (October 1988) [UK Industrials 12.0 RTZ 8.4 Cons Gold 12.2 US Industrials 13 - 13.4 Alcan Alcoa Amax Asarco Cyprus Minerals Freeport Copper Inco Inspiration Magma Copper Newmont Mining Nord Resources Phelps Dodge Reynolds Metal Canada TSE 300 10.6 Cominco 8.7 Falconbridge 5.3 Noranda 7.0 Rio Algom 7.2 Teck Corporation 17.] NOTE: Mining companies' p/e based on prospective 1988 earnings, from Kleinwort Benson Securities' weekly Mining World, October 1988. Until 1987, it was argued that share prices correctly reflected the companies' poor earnings potential. Subsequently, the argument has been that earnings have been unnaturally boosted by cyclically high metal prices. The stock market valuations, therefore, correctly reflect future earnings, or at least expected earnings. This seems to be a case of Heads, I win; Tails, you lose. The underlying analysis of metal markets appears