Interval estimation of seismic hazard parameters for mining induced seismicity - RASIM 2022

We present an algorithm to integrate the uncertainties of mean activity rate and magnitude cumulative distribution function in the interval estimation of the primary seismic hazard parameters: the exceedance probability and the mean return period. The algorithm is applicable for both the parametric and nonparametric modeling of magnitude distribution. When the Gutenberg-Richter relation-based parametric model of magnitude distribution is used, the interval estimation of its parameters is based on the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimators. When the nonparametric kernel estimation of magnitude distribution is used, we apply the iterated bias-corrected and accelerated method for the interval estimation, based on the smoothed bootstrap and second-order bootstrap samples. Previous studies indicated that the uncertainty of mean activity rate significantly affects the interval estimates of hazard functions only when the activity rate is low and the inference period is not long (Orlecka-Sikora & Lasocki 2017). With increasing mean activity rate, the uncertainty of magnitude distribution dominates over the uncertainty of mean activity rate in the aggregated uncertainty of the hazard functions. The provided algorithm is generic and can be applied to capture the uncertainty of any multiparameter function from the uncertainties of its parameters. Here we present a further development of the algorithm developed by Orlecka-Sikora & Lasocki (2017) by presenting its implementation in the Traffic Light System approach. As an example of use, we present the confidence intervals estimation of hazard parameters for the datasets related to induced seismicity accompanying underground exploitation of copper ore in the Legnica-Głogów Copper District (LGCD) in Poland. The algorithm is under implementation to the EPISODES platform (https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/) - an IT platform that provides access to integrated research infrastructures of the Thematic Core Service of Anthropogenic Hazards (TCS AH) of EPOS (European Plate Observing System). The algorithm is also a component of the pilot developed within the EPOS SP project (No 871121), which aims to strengthen the interaction with the private sector and the added value for society. The pilot demonstrates the potential of the IS-EPOS platform software applications for the technology-related probabilistic assessment of time-dependent seismic hazard. The pilot supports a Traffic Light System approach. The current seismic hazard is compared to threshold values based on the exceedance probability for a given magnitude.