Inherent Uncertainties In Determining Dam Breach Parameters Utilized In Numerical Tailings Dam Breach Analysis - SME Annual Meeting 2022

Recent tailings dam failures around the globe have influenced many mining industry regulators to reassess their requirements for the numerical modelling of tailings dam failures. This type or forward modelling is associated with overarching uncertainties as the model cannot be calibrated against a physical result. Dam breach analyses that meet the requirements of current industry standards and guidance typically begin with identification of credible failure modes and selection of appropriate topographic data set to represent the study area. The breach parameters and the volume of tailings released are then determined using available methodologies and empirical relationships. Subsequently, when the breach hydrograph is developed and the hydrology of stream networks are complete, the runout simulation is implemented. Due to the uncertainty involved in the process, sensitivity analyses are recommended to quantify variations in model inputs on the inundation extent and the flow characteristics. This paper outlines some common methodologies utilized for development of dam breach models, summarizes associated uncertainties with these methodologies and inputs, and provides guidance on how sensitivity analyses can address a wide array of uncertainties inherent in tailings breach analyses. This paper provides an understanding of how selecting appropriate breach parameters can result in reasonably conservative inundation extents consistent with the identified credible failure modes.