Influences on Future Primary Metal Processes

"Economic and other factors, mostly outside of metallurgy, that strongly influence applied research, development and especially successful commercial adoption of new processes for producing primary metals and other commodity materials are reviewed. These factors, which can be both positive and negative in their influence, are often too lightly regarded in the research planning stage. They include continuing imperatives that have long influenced new process development as well as more recent trends. Both are discussed. Nearly all new materials eventually become commodities--products made to standard specifications with no producer control over price. Success requires being a low cost producer on a world wide basis. Composites and other complex material assemblages are unlikely to escape this fate as they mature.INTRODUCTIONThe adoption of new processes, beginning with research and development, for primary metals and other commodity materials is particularly difficult because each new process must supplant an existing process that is already being used commercially. There are many requirements besides technical innovation and cost superiority that must be met by the new process. Consequently, few innovations make it all the way from the research laboratory to commercial success.This paper discusses some of the factors that influence success in developing new processes for primary metals and commodity materials, based on the authors experience as a research metallurgist and industrial research manager. It begins with some of the factors that are always present and constrain successful process research and development, and proceeds to current trends that are expected to continue long enough to influence processes in the year 2000. Many of these trends are contradictory in their effect on new process development, and the future remains uncertain.The prevailing importance of these trends will vary with the material, process concept and other factors intrinsic to each case. Nevertheless, an awareness of these influences can help to avoid some of the R&D pitfalls and dead ends. Such awareness is deemed to be a necessary condition to avoid failure when commercial adoption of a new process is the goal."