Inflation in the Mine Investment Decision

"We should be concerned about the future be- cause we will have to spend the rest of our lives there. " -Charles Kettering INTRODUCTION Since the early 1970s, there has been no economic phenomenon that has been more widely discussed or experienced in the United States than inflation. Al- though its precise definition and measurement are elusive, inflation has had pro- found and extensive impacts on the manner in which nearly everyone lives. It is painfully obvious to consumers that inflation is characterized by a continuing up- ward spiral of prices. In a capital-intensive industry like mining, those increases can be positively breathtaking. An interesting example is shown in Table 1. Table I shows that on a unit basis, the equivalent 1980 capital cost of Cuajone was over six times the cost of the adjacent and quite similar Toquepala operation completed in 1959. Such sobering statistics weigh heavily on the minds of executives who are contemplating major investments in new mining facilities. In spite of its monumental presence, inflation has usually been either inadequately covered or totally ignored in textbooks on engineering economy. The reasons for this are not entirely clear, but a contributing factor is the inherent difficulty in accurately predicting inflation. However, under certain conditions, inflation may become the most important factor in a mining investment, and it can rarely be safely ignored in capital investment analyses. DEFINING AND MEASURING INFLATION Defining inflation and related terms is relatively easy. Its measurement, how- ever, is the source of almost endless debate in economic and political circles. How- ever, much of that debate is not relevant to the scope of this book, so that only those issues which impact directly on the capital investment decision are covered in this section. Inflation is the general decline in the value of money as measured by what it will buy. It is clear, then, that the rate of inflation varies with the particular currency under consideration as well as the type of goods and services being purchased. One would find, for example, that the general rate of inflation relative to German marks