IC 8487 The United States Position And Outlook In Potash

This Bureau of Mines report reviews the development of the world potash industry. The trends leading to the present market situation of oversupply arid low prices, which threaten; the domestic potash industry, are presented and analyzed. Because the major threat to the domestic industry comes from Canadian imports, the report focuses on the comparative economics of United States and Canadian production. The study resulted in these major conclusions: 1. Balance of world supply and demand is foreseeable in 1975, but it could be delayed by planned expansion. 2. Balance of U.S. supply and demand could occur as early as 1974-75 or as late as 1981. 3. Nearly all U. S. production capacity vis-a-vis Canadian competition is now uneconomic. Prices cover out-of -pocket costs for only 30 percent of U.S. production. 4. U.S. producers will be undersold by Canadians in 60 to 90 percent of the U.S. market. Canadians also will have the edge over United States and European producers in export markets. 5. U.S. firms have invested in 60 percent of the planned 1971 Canadian production, and they have large holdings in Saskatchewan. 6. The decline in the U.S. potash industry probably reduced personal income in Carlsbad, Eddy County, N. Mex, the chief potash-producing area in the United States, about $21.5 million between 1966 and 1969.