Forecasting Metal Production From Heap Leach Operations

The business of heap leaching requires accurate forecasting of metal production from the heaps. Business forecasts typically follow a format that project periodic (monthly, quarterly, or annual) product shipments based on anticipated operating results, e. g., tons of ore placed, grade of ore, and rate of leach extraction. Since revenue and cash flow are dependent on the metal production stream, forecasts of metal production are very important for project evaluation and business planning purposes. Nevertheless, production forecasts, particularly for new heap leach projects, have been prone to errors. The present paper identifies some of the pitfalls that would be encountered in preparing production forecasts for new heap leach operations and provides a checklist of considerations to assist in preparing a forecast. Also, the paper presents a case study of copper production forecasting used for the Sanchez Project, a heap leach operation located near Safford, Arizona, that is presently under development by AZCO Mining, Inc.