First-Quarter 1987 Economic Activity - First Quarter 1987

Surprisingly, real gross national product (GNP) surged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3% for the first quarter of 1987 according to preliminary estimates made by the Department of Commerce, the highest rate in 3 yr and significantly above the revised fourth quarter 1986 rate of 1.1% (table 1). The spurt, however, was caused by an unusual $59.5 billion rise in inventories, mostly cars and trucks, and there was little support from other sectors of the economy. Motor vehicle inventories rose as consumers continued to tighten their purse strings--consumer spending declined 0.4% for the second quarter in a row. Nonresidential and residential fixed investment and government purchases of goods and services were also down from the previous quarter. The increasing cost of energy was the major factor in the jump to 3.696 in the rate of inflation, as measured by the fixed-weighted price index for GNP, and rising inflation also helped put a damper on consumer spending. The underlying good news was that the trade deficit shrank for the second quarter in a row as imports declined at an annual rate of 11.1%. Also, profits in the manufacturing sector rose strongly in the fourth quarter, and for the first time in 9 quarters, the primary metal industries became profitable (table 1). If one discounts the anomalous inventory growth, the bottom line is that the economy continues to grow at close to the expected 2.5% level experienced over the past 2 yr. Of concern over the next several quarters, though, is the impact of the large over- hang of motor vehicles inventories on the economy. EMPLOYMENT The civilian unemployment rate declined to 6.636 in March after remaining at 6.7% for the previous 3 months. Employment continued to expand in February and March, although growth was significantly slower in March than in previous months. The manufacturing sector, however, lost 24,000 jobs in March after gaining 46,000 in February. Three-quarters of that gain came when striking workers at USX Corp. and Deere & CO. returned to their jobs. Employment in the manufacturing sectors of direct interest to the mineral industries has generally been increasing for at least the last quarter, while worker hours for these sectors have been on the upswing since April 1986 (figures 1 and 2).