Feasibility Studies And Other Pre-Project Estimates. How Reliable Are They?

INTRODUCTION Banks are being asked to assume more and more of the project risk in connection with project financings and, as a result, they are seeking to become more sophisticated in the way that they approach these kinds of financings. For example, a large number of banks that are active with the mining companies have established mining groups which typically will include mining engineers, economists, and bankers, in order to specialize their service to the mining industry. These banks have geared up these special service staffs so that they will be better equipped in their lending activities to analyze, measure and evaluate the project risk. The hope is that a team of these specialists will be able to predict the potential success or failure of these new "green fields" mining ventures that the banks are asked to finance. This paper shall focus on this subject and try to determine just how successful these specialists can hope to become as they analyze these various projects that are brought to them for financing. The approach that shall be taken in this paper shall be to examine how successful the mining companies themselves have been in the past with this same problem. These mining companies should be the most sophisticated in their approach to the analysis of the potential for success of a new mine because they have had the most experience in evaluating these projects. After all, who knows more about developing a mine than the companies that have developed similar mines in the past? For the purposes of this paper, the writer has selected a sample of 18 mines that have been developed over the years and measured the actual performance of each of these sample ventures against the original projections. All of these cases have involved the development of large projects where the sponsors or partners in the venture are substantial and sophisticated companies and where the feasibility studies have been prepared by engineering firms that are considered very professional in the industry or alternatively where the feasibility has been done by a comparable in-house staff. The sample cases have been chosen from a period which starts in 1965 and continues through 1981 with the cases distributed over that period as indicated below: [ ] Fourteen of the projects are open pit mines, three are underground mines and one mine starts on the surface and gradually goes underground. Seven of the mines are in the the far east with the remaining three in either South or Central America. The following four specific questions were examined for each project: