End-Users, Recyclers And Producers: Shaping Tomorrow?s PGM Market And Metal Prices

Trends in PGM demand?The conference paper will cover a concise analysis of demand trends, which will include the major PGM end-use sectors (autocatalysis, jewellery, glass, petroleum, nitric acid, medical/dental) and will touch on the investment sector. Reference will be made to environmental legislation affecting global emission standards, trends in PGM loadings and the substitutability of platinum and palladium in this end-use sector. Observations will also be made on the jewellery sector, and the development of Chinese and Japanese demand. Trends in primary and secondary PGM supply?Similarly the paper will summarize historic and current global mine supply and primary production trends for PGMs, referencing recent expansions, their deliverability, and other projects coming on line. Consideration will be given to the grade and geology of PGMs worldwide and metallurgical developments. PGMs produced as by-products of base metal production and early PGM recycling estimates will also be appraised. In order to gain a wide-ranging appreciation of the industry?s long-term cost trends of producing virgin PGM metals, the paper will look at the cost and profit dynamics of global production on a regional basis (Western Bushveld, Eastern Bushveld, Northern Bushveld, Zimbabwe, USA, Canada and Russia). Extrapolating tomorrow?s PGM market and forecasting metal prices?Based on established industry trends and market practices Stephen Forrest will conclude by unveiling a variety of thought-provoking extrapolations of today?s and tomorrows platinum, palladium and rhodium markets to conference delegates. Importantly, having highlighted major developing PGM market trends in end-use (specifically on the elasticity of demand to high metal prices), primary and secondary PGM supply trends, in addition to presenting a carefully reasoned forecast of industry supply costs and margin trends, Stephen Forrest will conclude by estimating long-range PGM metal price trends. Other relevant market factors including industrial production, global currency rates and regional political factors will be deliberated.