Economic Modelling And Its Application In Strategic Planning

Mining executives often have a difficult task determining what the strategic objective of the business should be as this can be impacted by the prevailing market conditions. In addition, they have no mechanism to quantitatively 'test' the impact of this strategic decision on the business and understand the underlying dynamics. During the commodities bull run of 2003 to 2008 the strategic objective may have been to grow the long term value of the business (NPV) through increased tonnage, acquisition and finding new reserves, which all came with an increasing fixed cost base. Now with the financial crisis upon us and the collapse of commodity prices and demand, executives have adjusted their strategies as 'cash is king' and short-term cash flow, in some instances at the expense of long terms value, is the order of the day. For many mining companies, mine closures, reductions in production and cost cutting exercisers are now the focus. In many instances, management do not have an ability to rapidly test different strategic alternatives to 'test' the impact on value, unit costs, reserves and profitability at the operational level and optimize the underlying trade-off variables. Economic modelling of the complete business value chain is a means of linking the operational 'reality' and strategic choices, so that the full impact can be assessed. This paper describes some of the challenges facing mining executives and how economic modelling can be applied to make decision making more rigorous.